Related papers: Reactions to extreme events: moving threshold mode…

Extreme weather events have an enormous impact on society and are expected to become more frequent and severe with climate change. In this context, resilience planning becomes crucial for risk mitigation and coping with these extreme…

This work proposes an innovative approach using machine learning to predict extreme events in time series of chaotic dynamical systems. The research focuses on the time series of the H\'enon map, a two-dimensional model known for its…

The foremost aim of this study is to investigate the influence of time-delayed feedback on extreme events in a non-polynomial system with velocity dependent potential. To begin, we investigate the effect of this feedback on extreme events…

In many dynamical systems there is a large separation of time scales between typical events and "rare" events which can be the cases of interest. Rare-event rates are quite difficult to compute numerically, but they are of considerable…

Rare events are processes that occur upon the emergence of unlikely fluctuations. Unlike what their name suggests, rare events are fairly ubiquitous in nature, as the occurrence of many structural transformations in biology and material…

The Extremal Index is a parameter that measures the intensity of clustering of rare events and is usually equal to the reciprocal of the mean of the limiting cluster size distribution. We show how to build dynamically generated stochastic…

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of…

Extreme events are ubiquitous in a wide range of dynamical systems, including turbulent fluid flows, nonlinear waves, large scale networks and biological systems. Here, we propose a variational framework for probing conditions that trigger…

In this paper, we propose a new dynamical model to study the two-stage volatility evolution of stock market index after extreme events, and find that the volatility after extreme events follows a stretched exponential decay in the initial…

Uncertainty in return level estimates for rare events, like the intensity of large rainfall events, makes it difficult to develop strategies to mitigate related hazards, like flooding. Latent spatial extremes models reduce uncertainty by…

We study a three-species cyclic model whose organisms are vulnerable to contamination with an infectious disease which propagates person-to-person. We consider that individuals of one species perform an evolutionary self-preservation…

The modern theory of rare events is grounded in near equilibrium ideas, however many systems of modern interest are sufficiently far from equilibrium that traditional approaches do not apply. Using the recently developed variational path…

Extreme events taking place on networks are not uncommon. We show that it is possible to manipulate the extreme events occurrence probabilities and its distribution over the nodes on scale-free networks by tuning the nodal capacity. This…

Understanding how societies react to epidemic threats requires more than tracking infection curves. Public perception, collective memory and behavioural adaptation interact through feedback loops that can amplify or suppress the spread of…

During an epidemic outbreak, individuals often modify their behavior in response to global prevalence cues, using spatially mediated adaptations such as reduced mobility or transmission range. In this work, we investigate the impact of…

Models for epidemic spread typically account for variable risk factors but do not account for the correlation between behavior and risk. Here we extend these models to account for such correlations. We find that a positive correlation…

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models…

Being able to predict the occurrence of extreme returns is important in financial risk management. Using the distribution of recurrence intervals---the waiting time between consecutive extremes---we show that these extreme returns are…

Competition for a limited resource is the hallmark of many complex systems, and often, that resource turns out to be the physical space itself. In this work, we study a novel model designed to elucidate the dynamics and emergence in complex…

There is increasing evidence that global warming manifests itself in more frequent warm days and that heat waves will become more frequent. Presently, a formal definition of a heat wave is not agreed upon in the literature. To avoid this…