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We develop and implement a new type of global earthquake forecast. Our forecast is a perturbation on a smoothed seismicity (Relative Intensity) spatial forecast combined with a temporal time-averaged (Poisson) forecast. A variety of…
In this paper, a novel method to perform model-based clustering of time series is proposed. The procedure relies on two iterative steps: (i) K global forecasting models are fitted via pooling by considering the series pertaining to each…
We study the distributions of earthquake numbers in two global catalogs: Global Centroid-Moment Tensor and Preliminary Determinations of Epicenters. These distributions are required to develop the number test for forecasts of future seismic…
We study the statistics of the recurrence times between earthquakes above a certain magnitude M$ in California. We find that the distribution of the recurrence times strongly depends on the previous recurrence time $\tau_0$. As a…
Recent studies in the literature have introduced a new approach to earthquake forecasting based on representing the space-time patterns of localized seismicity by a time-dependent system state vector in a real-valued Hilbert space and…
We illustrate how a simple statistical model can describe the quasiperiodic occurrence of large earthquakes. The model idealizes the loading of elastic energy in a seismic fault by the stochastic filling of a box. The emptying of the box…
Around 90% of the earthquakes in the world occur at the circum-Pacific belt referred to as the Pacific Ring of Fire exposing the countries in this region to high risk of earthquake hazards. We model fluctuations of the different seismic…
Forecast reconciliation has attracted significant research interest in recent years, with most studies taking the hierarchy of time series as given. We extend existing work that uses time series clustering to construct hierarchies, with the…
Earthquakes vary in size over many orders of magnitude, yet the scaling of the earthquake energy budget remains enigmatic. We propose that fundamentally different "small-slip" and "large-slip" fracture processes govern earthquakes. We…
While multiple time scales generally arise in the dynamics of disordered systems, we find multiple time scales in absence of disorder, in a simple model with hard local constraints. The dynamics of the model, which consists of local…
A model for fault dynamics consisting of two rough and rigid brownian profiles that slide one over the other is introduced. An earthquake occurs when there is an intersection between the two profiles. The energy release is proportional to…
The impact of an extreme climate event depends strongly on its geographical scale. Max-stable processes can be used for the statistical investigation of climate extremes and their spatial dependencies on a continuous area. Most existing…
We numerically study the dynamics of a discrete spring-block model introduced by Olami, Feder and Christensen (OFC) to mimic earthquakes and investigate to which extent this simple model is able to reproduce the observed spatiotemporal…
Self-similarity indicates that large and small earthquakes share the same physics, where all variables scale with rupture length $L$. Here I show that rupture tip acceleration during the start of dynamic rupture (break-out phase) is also…
The data mining technique of time series clustering is well established in many fields. However, as an unsupervised learning method, it requires making choices that are nontrivially influenced by the nature of the data involved. The aim of…
We propose a dynamical scheme for the combined processes of fragmentation and merging as a model system for cluster dynamics in nature and society displaying scale invariant properties. The clusters merge and fragment with rates…
The quest for a theory of cities that could offer a quantitative and systematic approach to manage cities is at the top priority, given the challenges humanity faces due to the increasing urbanization and densification of cities. If such a…
Mega et al.(cond-mat/0212529) proposed to use the ``diffusion entropy'' (DE) method to demonstrate that the distribution of time intervals between a large earthquake (the mainshock of a given seismic sequence) and the next one does not obey…
We test the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative seismic strain release increases as a power-law…
Load modeling is difficult due to its uncertain and time-varying properties. Through the recently proposed ambient signals load modeling approach, these properties can be more frequently tracked. However, the large dataset of load modeling…