Related papers: Volatility, Persistence, and Survival in Financial…
The fractional stable motion is a prototypical stochastic process exhibiting both heavy tails and long-range dependence, parameterized via a stability index $\alpha$ and a Hurst exponent $H$. We consider a nonstationary extension where the…
We present cross and time series analysis of price fluctuations in the U.S. Treasury fixed income market. By means of techniques borrowed from statistical physics we show that the correlation among bonds depends strongly on the maturity and…
Arguably the most important problem in quantitative finance is to understand the nature of stochastic processes that underlie market dynamics. One aspect of the solution to this problem involves determining characteristics of the…
We show that financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. We introduce a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This…
The scaling properties of the time series of asset prices and trading volumes of stock markets are analysed. It is shown that similarly to the asset prices, the trading volume data obey multi-scaling length-distribution of low-variability…
We propose a simple stochastic model of market behavior. Dividing market participants into two groups: trend-followers and fundamentalists, we derive the general form of a stochastic equation of market dynamics. The model has two…
It is well known that the probability distribution of high-frequency financial returns is characterized by a leptokurtic, heavy-tailed shape. This behavior undermines the typical assumption of Gaussian log-returns behind the standard…
Assuming frictionless trading, classical stochastic portfolio theory (SPT) provides relative arbitrage strategies. However, the costs associated with real-world execution are state-dependent, volatile, and under increasing stress during…
We model the price of a stock via a Lang\'{e}vin equation with multi-dimensional fluctuations coupled in the price and in time. We generalize previous models in that we assume that the fluctuations conditioned on the time step are compound…
Complex systems comprise a large number of interacting elements, whose dynamics is not always a priori known. In these cases -- in order to uncover their key features -- we have to turn to empirical methods, one of which was recently…
This paper presents a method for forecasting limit order book durations using a self-exciting flexible residual point process. High-frequency events in modern exchanges exhibit heavy-tailed interarrival times, posing a significant challenge…
We study the average shape of a fluctuation of a time series x(t), that is the average value <x(t)-x(0)>_T before x(t) first returns, at time T, to its initial value x(0). For large classes of stochastic processes we find that a scaling law…
We present a framework for describing the evolution of stochastic observables having a non-stationary distribution of values. The framework is applied to empirical volume-prices from assets traded at the New York stock exchange. Using…
We propose a stochastic process for stock movements that, with just one source of Brownian noise, has an instantaneous volatility that rises from a type of statistical feedback across many time scales. This results in a stationary…
Basic peculiarities of market price fluctuations are known to be well described by a recently developed random walk model in a temporally deforming quadric potential force whose center is given by a moving average of past price traces…
We present analytical investigations of a multiplicative stochastic process that models a simple investor dynamics in a random environment. The dynamics of the investor's budget, $x(t)$, depends on the stochasticity of the return on…
Signals consisting of a sequence of pulses show that inherent origin of the 1/f noise is a Brownian fluctuation of the average interevent time between subsequent pulses of the pulse sequence. In this paper we generalize the model of…
We make use of wavelet transform to study the multi-scale, self similar behavior and deviations thereof, in the stock prices of large companies, belonging to different economic sectors. The stock market returns exhibit multi-fractal…
Financial markets have been extensively studied as highly complex evolving systems. In this paper, we quantify financial price fluctuations through a coupled dynamical system composed of phase oscillators. We find a Financial Coherence and…
The daily volume of transaction on the New York Stock Exchange and its day-to-day fluctuations are analysed with respect to power-law tails as well long-term trends. We also model the transition to a Gaussian distribution for longer time…