Related papers: Persistence in a Simple Model for the Earth's Atmo…
A "toy" model, simple and elementary enough for an undergraduate class, of the temperature dependence of the greenhouse (mid-IR) absorption by atmospheric water vapor implies a bistable climate system. The stable states are glaciation and…
Future climate change impacts depend on temperatures not only through changes in their means but also through changes in their variability. General circulation models (GCMs) predict changes in both means and variability; however, GCM output…
A thermodynamic device placed outdoors, or a local ecosystem, is subject to a variety of different temperatures given by short-tem (daily) and long-term (seasonal) variations. In the long term a superstatistical description makes sense,…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
The apparantly irregular (unpredictable) space-time fluctuations in atmospheric flows ranging from climate (thousands of kilometers - years) to turbulence (millimeters - seconds) exhibit the universal symmetry of self-similarity.…
We consider simple stochastic climate models, described by slowly time-dependent Langevin equations. We show that when the noise intensity is not too large, these systems can spend substantial amounts of time in metastable equilibrium,…
We review recent results on the appearance of long-term persistence in climatic records and their relevance for the evaluation of global climate models and rare events.The persistence can be characterized, for example, by the correlation…
The linear response to temperature changes is derived for systems with overdamped stochastic dynamics. Holding both in transient and steady state conditions, the results allow to compute nonequilibrium thermal susceptibilities from…
Understanding when global glaciations occur on Earth-like planets is a major challenge in climate evolution research. Most models of how greenhouse gases like CO2 evolve with time on terrestrial planets are deterministic, but the complex,…
The limit of small entropy production is reached in relaxing systems long after preparation, and in stationary driven systems in the limit of small driving power. Surprisingly, for extended systems this limit is not in general the…
Fluctuations in small biological systems can be crucial for their function. Large-deviation theory characterizes such rare events from the perspective of stochastic processes. In most cases it is very difficult to directly determine the…
We introduce a method for decomposition of trend, cycle and seasonal components in spatio-temporal models and apply it to investigate the existence of climate changes in temperature and rainfall series. The method incorporates critical…
Low-order climate models can play an important role in understanding low-frequency variability in the atmospheric circulation and how forcing consistent with anthropogenic climate change may affect this variability. Here, we study a…
We introduce a model described in terms of a scalar velocity field on a 1d lattice, evolving through collisions that conserve momentum but do not conserve energy. Such a system posseses some of the main ingredients of fluidized granular…
A number of brown dwarfs are now known to be variable with observed amplitudes as large as 10-30% at some wavelengths. While spatial inhomogeneities in cloud coverage and thickness are likely responsible for much of the observed…
Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential tools for understanding the impact of human actions on Earth's climate. One key application of these models is studying extreme weather events, such as heat waves or dry spells, which have…
The Late Pleistocene Antarctic temperature variation curve is decomposed into two parts: cyclic and stochastic. These two parts represent different but tightly interconnected processes and also represent two different types of…
We consider a model in which the quantum fluctuation can be controlled and show that the system responds to a spatially periodic external field at zero temperature. This signifies the occurrence of spatial stochastic resonance where the…
We test the scaling performance of seven leading global climate models by using detrended fluctuation analysis. We analyse temperature records of six representative sites around the globe simulated by the models, for two different…
To study the dynamics of chemical processes, we often adopt rate equations to observe the change in chemical concentrations. However, when the number of the molecules is small, the fluctuations cannot be neglected. We often study the…