Related papers: Persistence in a Simple Model for the Earth's Atmo…
We present a model for variations in atmospheric temperature from time scales of one day to one million years based on a stochastic diffusion (random walk) model of the turbulent transport of heat energy vertically in a coupled…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
We develop a three-timescale framework for modelling climate change and introduce a space-heterogeneous one-dimensional energy balance model. This model, addressing temperature fluctuations from rising carbon dioxide levels and the…
Exact theoretical results for the violation of time dependent fluctuation-dissipation relations in driven dissipative systems are presented. The ratio of correlation to delayed response in the stochastic model introduced in [Phys. Rev.…
A model is proposed to explain the observed correlation between monthly fluctuations in atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures. The model relies on the oceans being in a temperature-dependent equilibrium with the atmosphere. When…
Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating…
While the warming trends of the Earth's mean temperature are evident at climatological scales, the local temperature at shorter timescales are highly fluctuating. In this letter we show that the probabilities of such fluctuations are…
We investigate the low-temperature dynamics of a simple stochastic model, introduced recently in the context of the physics of glasses. The slowest characteristic time at equilibrium diverges exponentially at low temperature. On smaller…
The temporal fluctuations in global mean surface temperature is an example of a geophysical quantity which can be described using the notions of long-range persistence and scale invariance/scaling, but this description has suffered from…
There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether the present global warming is increasing local and global temperature variability. The central methodological issues of this debate relate to the proper treatment of normalised…
We consider stochastic thermodynamics as a theory of statistical inference for experimentally observed fluctuating time-series. To that end, we introduce a general framework for quantifying the knowledge about the dynamical state of the…
Chemically active systems such as living cells are maintained out of thermal equilibrium due to chemical events which generate heat and lead to active fluctuations. A key question is to understand on which time and length scales active…
In this article a stochastic cellular automata model is examined, which has been developed to study a "small" world, where local changes may noticeably alter global characteristics. This is applied to a climate model, where global…
The use of linear response theory for forced dissipative stochastic dynamical systems through the fluctuation dissipation theorem is an attractive way to study climate change systematically among other applications. Here, a mathematically…
Meteorological data have been used to calculate refractive index fluctuations - the indicator of optical instability of the Earth's atmosphere. The calculations were made for standard pressure levels of the atmosphere in winter and summer.…
Radiative forcing drives warming in the Earth system, leading to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated radiative feedbacks. The link between changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiative flux and SST patterns,…
In this paper we study the dynamics of stochastic microorganism flocculation models. Given the strong influence of environmental and seasonal fluctuations that are present in these models, we propose a stochastic model that includes…
This chapter is dedicated to the slow dynamics of the climate system, at time scales of one~thousand to one million years. We focus specifically on the phenomenon of ice ages that has characterised the slow evolution of climate over the…
Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…