Related papers: Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?
This study examines how congestion pricing shapes housing market outcomes and spatial equity in New York City. Using high-frequency sales and rental data and a combination of propensity score matching difference-in-differences, geographic…
Growth rate of real GDP per capita is represented as a sum of two components -- a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to a specific age population change. The economic trend is modeled by an inverse function of…
Modeling U.S. Congressional legislation and roll-call votes has received significant attention in previous literature. However, while legislators across 50 state governments and D.C. propose over 100,000 bills each year, and on average…
The recent surge in valuations among AI related firms has renewed concerns that markets may be entering a new phase of speculative exuberance, especially in the technology and semiconductor sectors at the center of the AI investment wave.…
Based on the tick-by-tick price changes of the companies from the U.S. and from the German stock markets over the period 1998-99 we reanalyse several characteristics established by the Boston Group for the U.S. market in the period 1994-95,…
This working paper analyzes the gold price dynamics on the basis of methodology developed by Didier Sornette. Our calculations indicate that this dynamics is close to the one of the "bubbles" studied by Sornette and that the most probable…
We represent the functioning of the housing market and study the relation between income segregation, income inequality and house prices by introducing a spatial Agent-Based Model (ABM). Differently from traditional models in urban…
We consider a simple stochastic differential equation for modeling bubbles in social context. A prime example is bubbles in asset pricing, but similar mechanisms may control a range of social phenomena driven by psychological factors (for…
We introduce a simple generalization of rational bubble models which removes the fundamental problem discovered by [Lux and Sornette, 1999] that the distribution of returns is a power law with exponent less than 1, in contradiction with…
We analyze the French housing market prices in the period 1970-2022, with high-resolution data from 2018 to 2022. The spatial correlation of the observed price field exhibits logarithmic decay characteristic of the two-dimensional random…
Prior literature has argued that flood insurance maps may not capture the extent of flood risk. This paper performs a granular assessment of coastal flood risk in the mortgage market by using physical simulations of hurricane storm surge…
Will the Opportunity Zones (OZ) program, America's largest new place-based policy in decades, generate neighborhood change? We compare single-family housing price growth in OZs with price growth in areas that were eligible but not included…
We introduce a mathematical criterion defining the bubbles or the crashes in financial market price fluctuations by considering exponential fitting of the given data. By applying this criterion we can automatically extract the periods in…
Both buyers and sellers face uncertainty in real estate transactions in about when to time a transaction and at what cost. Both buyers and sellers make decisions without knowing the present and future state of the large and dynamic real…
The dynamics of false vacuum decay at the end of inflation is studied. It is shown that the creation of a new phase is mainly stimulated by temperature fluctuations. Moving walls of O(3)-symmetric bubbles weakly interact with their…
Recent research has documented a significant rise in the volatility (e.g., expected squared change) of individual incomes in the U.S. since the 1970s. Existing measures of this trend abstract from individual heterogeneity, effectively…
Despite modest declines in residential segregation levels since the Civil Rights Era, segregation remains a defining feature of the U.S. landscape. This study highlights the importance of considering physical barriers--features of the urban…
The trajectories of a single bubble rising in the vicinity of a vertical solid wall are experimentally investigated. Distinct initial wall-bubble distances are considered for three different bubble rising regimes, i.e. rectilinear, planar…
A remarkable similarity in the behavior of the US S&P500 index from 1996 to August 2002 and of the Japanese Nikkei index from 1985 to 1992 (11 years shift) is presented, with particular emphasis on the structure of the bearish phases.…
Homelessness in American cities is becoming an ever more prominent issue, but its causes remain contested, ranging from mental health and substance abuse to housing affordability and local labor markets. To shed light on this issue, I…