Related papers: Time and foreign exchange markets

The concept of time mostly plays a subordinate role in finance and economics. The assumption is that time flows continuously and that time series data should be analyzed at regular, equidistant intervals. Nonetheless, already nearly 60…

In the information-based approach to asset pricing the market filtration is modelled explicitly as a superposition of signals concerning relevant market factors and independent noise. The rate at which the signal is revealed to the market…

We define what "Price Impact" means, and how it is measured and modelled in the recent literature. Although this notion seems to convey the idea of a forceful and intuitive mechanism, we discuss why things might not be that simple.…

For the purpose of elucidating the correlation among currencies, we analyze daily and high-resolution data of foreign exchange rates. There is strong correlation for pairs of currencies of geographically near countries. We show that there…

I present an overview of some recent advancements on the empirical analysis and theoretical modeling of the process of price formation in financial markets as the result of the arrival of orders in a limit order book exchange. After…

Specialized topics on financial data analysis from a numerical and physical point of view are discussed. They pertain to the analysis of crash prediction in stock market indices and to the persistence or not of coherent and random sequences…

Stochastic mathematical models are essential tools for understanding and predicting complex phenomena. The purpose of this work is to study the exit times of a stochastic dynamical system-specifically, the mean exit time and the…

In a financial market, for agents with long investment horizons or at times of severe market stress, it is often changes in the asset price that act as the trigger for transactions or shifts in investment position. This suggests the use of…

We introduce a new diffusion process Xt to describe asset prices within an economic bubble cycle. The main feature of the process, which differs from existing models, is the drift term where a mean-reversion is taken based on an exponential…

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis, much attention has been paid to investigating the appropriateness of the current practice of default risk modeling in banking, finance and insurance industries. A recent empirical study by…

A quantitative check of weak efficiency in US dollar/German mark exchange rates is developed using high frequency data. We show the existence of long term return anomalies. We introduce a technique to measure the available information and…

In this paper, we focus on option pricing models based on space-time fractional diffusion. We briefly revise recent results which show that the option price can be represented in the terms of rapidly converging double-series and apply these…

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is widely accepted to hold true under certain assumptions. One of its implications is that the prediction of stock prices at least in the short run cannot outperform the random walk model. Yet, recently…

This paper defines theoretical lower bounds of uncertainty of observations of macroeconomic variables that depend on statistical moments and correlations of random values and volumes of market trades. Any econometric assessments of…

We study an agent-based stock market model with heterogeneous agents and friction. Our model is based on that of Foellmer-Schweizer(1993): The process of a stock price in a discrete-time framework is determined by temporary equilibria via…

We analyze the relative price change of assets starting from basic supply/demand considerations subject to arbitrary motivations. The resulting stochastic differential equation has coefficients that are functions of supply and demand. We…

We shortly review the statistical properties of the escape times, or hitting times, for stock price returns by using different models which describe the stock market evolution. We compare the probability function (PF) of these escape times…

This paper expands on stochastic volatility models by proposing a data-driven method to select the macroeconomic events most likely to impact volatility. The paper identifies and quantifies the effects of macroeconomic events across…

For the pedestrian observer, financial markets look completely random with erratic and uncontrollable behavior. To a large extend, this is correct. At first approximation the difference between real price changes and the random walk model…

We apply the formalism of the continuous time random walk to the study of financial data. The entire distribution of prices can be obtained once two auxiliary densities are known. These are the probability densities for the pausing time…