Related papers: Probabilistic temperature forecasting: a summary o…
Relativistic thermodynamics as result of some recent computer simulations is derived.
Probabilistic temperature forecasts are potentially useful to the energy and weather derivatives industries. However, at present, they are little used. There are a number of reasons for this, but we believe this is in part due to…
We show that probabilistic weather forecasts of site specific temperatures can be dramatically improved by using seasonally varying rather than constant calibration parameters.
The spread of ensemble weather forecasts contains information about the spread of possible future weather scenarios. But how much information does it contain, and how useful is that information in predicting the probabilities of future…
In this contribution I present results achieved recently in the field of the OT forecast that push further the limit of the accuracy of the OT forecasts and open to new perspectives in this field.
Climate change is a reality of today. Paleoclimatic proxies and climate predictions based on coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models provide us with temperature data. Using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, we are investigating…
This popular article provides a short summary of the progress and prospects in Weather and Climate Modelling for the benefit of high school and undergraduate college students and early career researchers. Although this is not a…
I present a brief update on the transverse polarization distributions, focusing on model calculations and phenomenological perspectives.
Selected results obtained using THERMUS, a newly-developed statistical-thermal model analysis package, are presented.
The appeal of thermodynamics to problems outside physics is undeniable, as is the growing recognition of its apparent universality, yet in the absence of a rigorous formalism divorced from the peculiarities of molecular systems all attempts…
Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…
We discuss various aspects of the statistical formulation of the theory of random graphs, with emphasis on results obtained in a series of our recent publications.
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
A specific implementation of Bayesian model averaging has recently been suggested as a method for the calibration of ensemble temperature forecasts. We point out the similarities between this new approach and an earlier method known as…
This paper proposes a new method of probabilistic prediction, which is based on conformal prediction. The method is applied to the standard USPS data set and gives encouraging results.
We offer some summation formulas that appear to have great utility in probability theory. The proofs require some recent results from analysis that have thus far been applied to basic hypergeometric functions.
Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar…
We report on a course project in which students submit weekly probabilistic forecasts of two weather variables and one financial variable. This real-time format allows students to engage in practical forecasting, which requires a diverse…
We make some simple observations on basic issues pertaining to thermostatistical formalisms.
The status of stochastic cooling and developments over the years are reviewed with reference to much of the original work. Both theoretical and technological subjects are considered.