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A large consensus now seems to take for granted that the distributions of empirical returns of financial time series are regularly varying, with a tail exponent close to 3. We revisit this results and use standard tests as well as develop a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2008-12-10 Y. Malevergne , V. F. Pisarenko , D. Sornette

The present Letter, deals with the statistical theory [Phys. Rev. E {\bf 66}, 056125 (2002) and Phys. Rev E {\bf 72}, 036108 (2005)], which predicts the probability distribution $p(E) \propto \exp_{\kappa} (-I)$, where, $I \propto \beta E…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-10-19 G. Kaniadakis

The different between the inverse power function and the negative exponential function is significant. The former suggests a complex distribution, while the latter indicates a simple distribution. However, the association of the power-law…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-12-19 Yanguang Chen

We present the data on wealth and income distributions in the United Kingdom, as well as on the income distributions in the individual states of the USA. In all of these data, we find that the great majority of population is described by an…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Adrian Dragulescu , Victor M. Yakovenko

Over the last few decades power law distributions have been suggested as forming generative mechanisms in a variety of disparate fields, such as, astrophysics, criminology and database curation. However, fitting these heavy tailed…

Computation · Statistics 2014-08-26 Colin S. Gillespie

In this paper we tackle the problem of estimating the power-law tail exponent of income distributions by using the Hill's estimator. A subsample semi-parametric bootstrap procedure minimising the mean squared error is used to choose the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-01-31 F. Clementi , T. Di Matteo , M. Gallegati

In this article two methods to distinguish between polynomial and exponential tails are introduced. The methods are mainly based on the properties of the residual coefficient of variation for the exponential and non-exponential…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-12-21 Joan del Castillo , Jalila Daoudi , Richard Lockhart

The present paper is devoted to the relativistic statistical theory, introduced in Phys. Rev. E {\bf 66} (2002) 056125 and Phys. Rev. E {\bf 72} (2005) 036108, predicting the particle distribution function $p(E)= \exp_{\kappa}…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2010-12-20 G. Kaniadakis

This article introduces a non-parametric information-theoretic approach to inference about the tail of a continuous or a discrete distribution. Leveraging a new concept named tail profile -- a set of information-theoretic quantities…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-19 Jialin Zhang , Zhiyi Zhang

Power-law distributions occur in many situations of scientific interest and have significant consequences for our understanding of natural and man-made phenomena. Unfortunately, the detection and characterization of power laws is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-12 Aaron Clauset , Cosma Rohilla Shalizi , M. E. J. Newman

More than one billion data sampled with different frequencies from several financial instruments were investigated with the aim of testing whether they involve power law. As a result, a known power law with the power exponent around -4 was…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-06 Caglar Tuncay

Power-law probability distributions are widely used to model extreme statistical events in complex systems, with applications to a vast array of natural phenomena ranging from earthquakes to stock market crashes to pandemics. We show that…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-08 Wai-Keong Mok

A wide range of natural and social phenomena result in observables whose distributions can be well approximated by a power-law decay. The well-known Hill estimator of the tail exponent provides results which are in many respects superior to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-05-20 Éva Rácz , János Kertész , Zoltán Eisler

There is convincing evidence showing that the probability distributions of stock returns in mature markets exhibit power-law tails and both the positive and negative tails conform to the inverse cubic law. It supports the possibility that…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-03-13 Guo-Hua Mu , Wei-Xing Zhou

Taylor's law, also known as fluctuation scaling in physics and the power-law variance function in statistics, is an empirical pattern widely observed across fields including ecology, physics, finance, and epidemiology. It states that the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-13 Pok Him Cheng , Joel E. Cohen , Hok Kan Ling , Sheung Chi Phillip Yam

The mutual fund industry manages about a quarter of the assets in the U.S. stock market and thus plays an important role in the U.S. economy. The question of how much control is concentrated in the hands of the largest players is best…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-05-28 Yonathan Schwarzkopf , J. Doyne Farmer

We investigate the distributions of epsilon-drawdowns and epsilon-drawups of the most liquid futures financial contracts of the world at time scales of 30 seconds. The epsilon-drawdowns (resp. epsilon- drawups) generalise the notion of runs…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-04-08 Vladimir Filimonov , Didier Sornette

A new three-parameter cumulative distribution function defined on $(\alpha,\infty)$, for some $\alpha\geq0$, with asymmetric probability density function and showing exponential decays at its both tails, is introduced. The new distribution…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-28 Meitner Cadena

We study the probability distribution of stock returns at mesoscopic time lags (return horizons) ranging from about an hour to about a month. While at shorter microscopic time lags the distribution has power-law tails, for mesoscopic times…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 A. Christian Silva , Richard E. Prange , Victor M. Yakovenko

Distinguishing power-law distributions from other heavy-tailed distributions is challenging, and this task is often further complicated by subsampling effects. In this work, we evaluate the performance of two commonly used methods for…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2024-05-09 Silja Sormunen , Lasse Leskelä , Jari Saramäki
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