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Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects…
The Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) has been an important research tool in the study of climate change for decades. As the demand for high-resolution simulation is becoming urgent, the scalability and simulation efficiency is…
In our modeling of the long-term carbon cycle we find potential multiple steady-states in Phanerozoic climates. We include the effects of biotic enhancement of weathering on land, organic carbon burial, oxidation of reduced organic carbon…
The chaotic sea below the lowest energy spanning curve of the complete Fermi-Ulam model (FUM) is numerically investigated when the amplitude of oscillation 'epsilon' of the moving wall is small. We use scaling analysis near the integrable…
Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide forecasts of future climate warming using a wide variety of highly sophisticated anthropogenic CO2 emissions models as input, each based on the evolution of four emissions "drivers": population p,…
As a consequence of greenhouse forcing, all state of the art general circulation models predict a positive temperature trend that is greater for the troposphere than the surface. This predicted positive trend increases in value with…
Interaction between atmospheric mid-latitude flow and wind-driven ocean circulation is studied coupling two idealized low-order spectral models. The barotropic Charney-DeVore model with three components simulates a bimodal mid-latitude…
Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…
Rotation in planetary atmospheres plays an important role in regulating atmospheric and oceanic heat flow, cloud formation and precipitation. Using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) three dimension General Circulation Model…
Planetary Climate Models (PCMs) are developed to explore planetary climates other than the Earth. Therefore, the methods implemented need to be suitable for a large diversity of conditions. Every planet with a significant atmosphere has…
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a leading mode of atmospheric variability, affecting the North Atlantic Ocean on sub-seasonal to multi-decadal timescales. The NAO changes the atmospheric forcing at the ocean's surface, including…
Atmospheric aerosol nucleation contributes to more than half of cloud condensation nuclei globally. The emissions, properties and concentrations of atmospheric aerosols or aerosol precursors could respond significantly to climate change.…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
During the last ice age there were several quasi-periodic abrupt warming events. The climatic effects of the so-called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events were felt globally, although the North Atlantic experienced the largest and most abrupt…
This is the second part of a series of two articles focused on the development and evaluation of the ARP-GEM1 global atmosphere model. The first paper introduced the model's new physics and speedup improvements. In this second part, we…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…
Vertical motions across the ocean are central to processes, like CO$_2$ fixation, heat removal or pollutant transport, which are essential to the Earth's climate. This work explores 3D conveyor routes {associated with} the Atlantic…
Deep learning (DL)-based general circulation models (GCMs) are emerging as fast simulators, yet their ability to replicate extreme events outside their training range remains unknown. Here, we evaluate two such models -- the hybrid Neural…
The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the climate system and considered to be a tipping element. There is still a large uncertainty on the critical global warming level at which the AMOC will start to…
The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth's radiative forcing and the resulting…