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Gibbs random fields play an important role in statistics, for example the autologistic model is commonly used to model the spatial distribution of binary variables defined on a lattice. However they are complicated to work with due to an…
Barlow and Beeston presented an exact likelihood for the problem of fitting a composite model consisting of binned templates obtained from Monte-Carlo simulation which are fitted to equally binned data. Solving the exact likelihood is…
When data do not conform to the hypothesis of a known sampling-variance, the fitting of a constant to the set of measured values is a long debated problem. Given the data, the fitting would require to find which measurand value is most…
We describe a setup for obtaining uncertainty relations for arbitrary pairs of observables related by Fourier transform. The physical examples discussed here are standard position and momentum, number and angle, finite qudit systems, and…
Observables in particle physics and specifically in lattice QCD calculations are often extracted from fits. Standard $\chi^2$ tests require a reliable determination of the covariance matrix and its inverse from correlated and…
Reliable uncertainty estimation is crucial for perception systems in safe autonomous driving. Recently, many methods have been proposed to model uncertainties in deep learning based object detectors. However, the estimated probabilities are…
We consider adjustable robust linear complementarity problems and extend the results of Biefel et al. (2022) towards convex and compact uncertainty sets. Moreover, for the case of polyhedral uncertainty sets, we prove that computing an…
Mixed-effect models are flexible tools for researchers in a myriad of fields, but that flexibility comes at the cost of complexity and if users are not careful in how their model is specified, they could be making faulty inferences from…
Metrics of model goodness-of-fit, model comparison, and model parameter estimation are the main categories of statistical problems in science. Bayesian and frequentist methods that address these questions often rely on a likelihood…
Models allowing for random heterogeneity, such as mixed logit and latent class, are generally observed to obtain superior model fit and yield detailed insights into unobserved preference heterogeneity. Using theoretical arguments and two…
In this article the issues are discussed with the Bayesian approach, least-square fits, and most-likely fits. Trying to counter these issues, a method, based on weighted confidence, is proposed for estimating probabilities and other…
Binned maximum likelihood fits are an attractive option when analysing large datasets, but require care when computing likelihoods of continuous PDFs in bins. For many years the widely used statistical modelling package RooFit evaluated…
The multi-class prediction had gained popularity over recent years. Thus measuring fit goodness becomes a cardinal question that researchers often have to deal with. Several metrics are commonly used for this task. However, when one has to…
Combinatorics, like computer science, often has to deal with large objects of unspecified (or unusable) structure. One powerful way to deal with such an arbitrary object is to decompose it into more usable components. In particular, it has…
A filament is a high density, connected region in a point cloud. There are several methods for estimating filaments but these methods do not provide any measure of uncertainty. We give a definition for the uncertainty of estimated filaments…
LECTURE GIVEN AT TH2002. Given a set of Boolean variables, and some constraints between them, is it possible to find a configuration of the variables which satisfies all constraints? This problem, which is at the heart of combinatorial…
Unfolding is an important procedure in particle physics experiments which corrects for detector effects and provides differential cross section measurements that can be used for a number of downstream tasks, such as extracting fundamental…
We consider the two-sided stable matching setting in which there may be uncertainty about the agents' preferences due to limited information or communication. We consider three models of uncertainty: (1) lottery model --- in which for each…
ML models have errors when used for predictions. The errors are unknown but can be quantified by model uncertainty. When multiple ML models are trained using the same training points, their model uncertainties may be statistically…
A common goal in an experimental physics analysis is to extract information from a reaction with multi-dimensional kinematics. The preferred method for such a task is typically the unbinned maximum likelihood method. In fits using this…