Related papers: Frequentist Hypothesis Testing with Background Unc…

Hypothesis test plays a key role in uncertain statistics based on uncertain measure. This paper extends the parametric hypothesis of a single uncertain population to multiple cases, thereby addressing a broader range of scenarios. First, an…

In this work, based on a realization of an inhomogeneous Poisson process whose intensity function depends on a real unknown parameter, we consider a simple hypothesis against a sequence of close (contiguous) alternatives. Under certain…

Several experiments in high-energy physics and astrophysics can be treated as on/off measurements, where an observation potentially containing a new source or effect ("on" measurement) is contrasted with a background-only observation free…

This is a writeup of lectures on "statistics" that have evolved from the initial version for the 2009 Hadron Collider Physics Summer School at CERN to versions for other venues and, most recently, for the African School of Fundamental…

This is a writeup, with some elaboration, of the talks by the two authors (a physicist and a statistician) at the first PHYSTAT Informal review on January 24, 2024. We discuss Bayesian and frequentist approaches to dealing with nuisance…

For decades researchers have studied the On/Off counting problem, where a measured rate consists of two parts. One due to a signal process and another due to a background process, of which both magnitudes are unknown. While most frequentist…

The measurements with the background estimation from an off-zone are widely used in astrophysics, accelerator physics and other areas. Usually, the expected number of the background events in the off-zone and in the on-zone is known with a…

Searches for new astrophysical phenomena often involve several sources of non-random uncertainties which can lead to highly misleading results. Among these, model-uncertainty arising from background mismodelling can dramatically compromise…

In this article, we consider the problem of simultaneous testing of hypotheses when the individual test statistics are not necessarily independent. Specifically, we consider the problem of simultaneous testing of point null hypotheses…

Using the likelihood ratio test statistic, we present a method which can be employed to test the hypothesis of a single Higgs boson using the matrix of measured signal strengths. This method can be applied in the presence of incomplete data…

We describe a method for fitting distributions to data which only requires knowledge of the parametric form of either the signal or the background but not both. The unknown distribution is fit using a non-parametric kernel density…

We propose a frequentist testing procedure that maintains a defined coverage and is optimal in the sense that it gives maximal power to detect deviations from a null hypothesis when the alternative to the null hypothesis is sampled from a…

Neyman and Pearson's theory of testing hypotheses does not warrant minimal epistemic reliability: the feature of driving to true conclusions more often than to false ones. The theory does not protect from the possible negative effects of…

In this work, we address the question of how to enhance signal-agnostic searches by leveraging multiple testing strategies. Specifically, we consider hypothesis tests relying on machine learning, where model selection can introduce a bias…

Many high-energy physics analyses require the presence of leptons from $W$, $Z$, or $H$ boson decay. For these analyses, signatures that mimic such leptons present a `fake lepton' background that must be estimated. Since the magnitude of…

We present a rigorous description of the general problem of aperture photometry in high energy astrophysics photon-count images, in which the statistical noise model is Poisson, not Gaussian. We compute the full posterior probability…

The estimation of signal frequency count in the presence of background noise has had much discussion in the recent physics literature, and Mandelkern [1] brings the central issues to the statistical community, leading in turn to extensive…

This document presents the statistical methods used to process low-level measurements in the presence of noise. These methods can be classical or Bayesian. The question is placed in the general framework of the problem of nuisance…

Searches for unknown physics and decisions between competing astrophysical models to explain data both rely on statistical hypothesis testing. The usual approach in searches for new physical phenomena is based on the statistical Likelihood…

Binary hypothesis testing under the Neyman-Pearson formalism is a statistical inference framework for distinguishing data generated by two different source distributions. Privacy restrictions may require the curator of the data or the data…