Related papers: Do probabilistic medium-range temperature forecast…

Standard regression approaches assume that some finite number of the response distribution characteristics, such as location and scale, change as a (parametric or nonparametric) function of predictors. However, it is not always appropriate…

A rich set of frequentist model averaging methods has been developed, but their applications have largely been limited to point prediction, as measuring prediction uncertainty in general settings remains an open problem. In this paper we…

Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal…

Unnormalized (or energy-based) models provide a flexible framework for capturing the characteristics of data with complex dependency structures. However, the application of standard Bayesian inference methods has been severely limited…

Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…

Aleatoric uncertainty captures the inherent randomness of the data, such as measurement noise. In Bayesian regression, we often use a Gaussian observation model, where we control the level of aleatoric uncertainty with a noise variance…

Predictions and forecasts of machine learning models should take the form of probability distributions, aiming to increase the quantity of information communicated to end users. Although applications of probabilistic prediction and…

Deep learning offers promising new ways to accurately model aleatoric uncertainty in robotic state estimation systems, particularly when the uncertainty distributions do not conform to traditional assumptions of being fixed and Gaussian. In…

Given a nonlinear model, a probabilistic forecast may be obtained by Monte Carlo simulations. At a given forecast horizon, Monte Carlo simulations yield sets of discrete forecasts, which can be converted to density forecasts. The resulting…

The accuracy of probability distributions inferred using machine-learning algorithms heavily depends on data availability and quality. In practical applications it is therefore fundamental to investigate the robustness of a statistical…

Bayesian inference allows machine learning models to express uncertainty. Current machine learning models use only a single learnable parameter combination when making predictions, and as a result are highly overconfident when their…

In learned image compression, probabilistic models play an essential role in characterizing the distribution of latent variables. The Gaussian model with mean and scale parameters has been widely used for its simplicity and effectiveness.…

Supplement 1 to GUM (GUM-S1) recommends the use of maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) in determining the probability distribution of a quantity having specified properties, e.g., specified central moments. When we only know the mean value…

Neural network potentials (NNPs) combine the computational efficiency of classical interatomic potentials with the high accuracy and flexibility of the ab initio methods used to create the training set, but can also result in unphysical…

A random set is a generalisation of a random variable, i.e. a set-valued random variable. The random set theory allows a unification of other uncertainty descriptions such as interval variable, mass belief function in Dempster-Shafer theory…

This work aims to assess how well a model performs under distribution shifts without using labels. While recent methods study prediction confidence, this work reports prediction dispersity is another informative cue. Confidence reflects…

The present paper studies a large class of temperature dependent probability distributions and shows that entropy and energy can be defined in such a way that these probability distributions are the equilibrium states of a generalized…

Assessing model generalization under distribution shift is essential for real-world deployment, particularly when labeled test data is unavailable. This paper presents a unified and practical framework for unsupervised model evaluation and…

Applying a machine learning model for decision-making in the real world requires to distinguish what the model knows from what it does not. A critical factor in assessing the knowledge of a model is to quantify its predictive uncertainty.…

Conformal prediction is a simple and powerful tool that can quantify uncertainty without any distributional assumptions. Many existing methods only address the average coverage guarantee, which is not ideal compared to the stronger…