Related papers: Foreign exchange market fluctuations as random wal…
In this paper we present a continuous time dynamical model of heterogeneous agents interacting in a financial market where transactions are cleared by a market maker. The market is composed of fundamentalist, trend following and contrarian…
The probability distribution of log-returns for financial time series, sampled at high frequency, is the basis for any further developments in quantitative finance. In this letter, we present experimental results based on a large set of…
Foreign exchange rates movements exhibit significant cross-correlations even on very short time-scales. The effect of these statistical relationships become evident during extreme market events, such as flash crashes.In this scenario, an…
This study investigates that a characteristic time scale on an exchange rate market (USD/JPY) is examined for the period of 1998 to 2000. Calculating power spectrum densities for the number of tick quotes per minute and averaging them over…
We study the global fluctuations for a class of determinantal point processes coming from large systems of non-colliding processes and non-intersecting paths. Our main assumption is that the point processes are constructed by biorthogonal…
Time-varying networks describe a wide array of systems whose constituents and interactions evolve over time. They are defined by an ordered stream of interactions between nodes, yet they are often represented in terms of a sequence of…
We present a simple model of a stock market where a random communication structure between agents gives rise to a heavy tails in the distribution of stock price variations in the form of an exponentially truncated power-law, similar to…
We introduce planar random walk conditioned to avoid its past convex hull, and we show that it escapes at a positive limsup speed. Experimental results show that fluctuations from a limiting direction are on the order of n^(3/4). This…
This paper presents static and dynamic versions of univariate, multivariate, and multilevel functional time-series methods to forecast implied volatility surfaces in foreign exchange markets. We find that dynamic functional principal…
We introduce a deterministic dealer model which implements most of the empirical laws, such as fat tails in the price change distributions, long term memory of volatility and non-Poissonian intervals. We also clarify the causality between…
In foreign exchange markets monotonic rate changes can be observed in time scale of order of an hour on the days that governmental interventions took place. We estimate the starting time of an intervention using this characteristic behavior…
An excited random walk is a non-Markovian extension of the simple random walk, in which the walk's behavior at time $n$ is impacted by the path it has taken up to time $n$. The properties of an excited random walk are more difficult to…
We study the fluctuations of a stochastic Maxwell-Lorentz particle model driven by an external field to determine the extent to which fluctuation relations are related to large deviations. Focusing on the total entropy production of this…
We consider a discrete time quantum walker in one dimension, where at each step, the step length $\ell$ is chosen from a distribution $P(\ell) \propto \ell^{-\delta -1}$ with $\ell \leq \ell_{max}$. We evaluate the probability $f(x,t)$ that…
We consider an optimal investment and consumption problem for a Black-Scholes financial market with stochastic volatility and unknown stock appreciation rate. The volatility parameter is driven by an external economic factor modeled as a…
We study the order statistics of a random walk (RW) of $n$ steps whose jumps are distributed according to symmetric Erlang densities $f_p(\eta)\sim |\eta|^p \,e^{-|\eta|}$, parametrized by a non-negative integer $p$. Our main focus is on…
Stretched exponential relaxation ($\exp{-(t/\tau)}^{\beta_K}$) is observed in a large variety of systems but has not been explained so far. Studying random walks on percolation clusters in curved spaces whose dimensions range from 2 to 7,…
We show how bad and good volatility propagate through forex markets, i.e., we provide evidence for asymmetric volatility connectedness on forex markets. Using high-frequency, intra-day data of the most actively traded currencies over 2007 -…
In this note we investigate the consistency under inversion of jump diffusion processes in the Foreign Exchange (FX) market. In other terms, if the EUR/USD FX rate follows a given type of dynamics, under which conditions will USD/EUR follow…
We analyze random walk through fractal environments, embedded in 3-dimensional, permeable space. Particles travel freely and are scattered off into random directions when they hit the fractal. The statistical distribution of the flight…