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Hypothesis tests for the presence of new sources of Poisson counts amidst background processes are frequently performed in high energy physics (HEP), gamma ray astronomy (GRA), and other branches of science. While there are conceptual…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-11-20 Robert D. Cousins , James T. Linnemann , Jordan Tucker

Experiments often yield non-identically distributed data for statistical analysis. Tests of hypothesis under such set-ups are generally performed using the likelihood ratio test, which is non-robust with respect to outliers and model…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-25 Abhik Ghosh , Ayanendranath Basu

We describe a statistical hypothesis test for the presence of a signal. The test allows the researcher to fix the signal location and/or width a priori, or perform a search to find the signal region that maximizes the signal. The background…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Wolfgang Rolke , Angel Lopez

The analysis of count data is commonly done using Poisson models. Negative binomial models are a straightforward and readily motivated generalization for the case of overdispersed data, i.e., when the observed variance is greater than…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-06 Christian Röver , Stefan Andreas , Tim Friede

This paper studies optimal hypothesis testing for nonregular econometric models with parameter-dependent support. We consider both one-sided and two-sided hypothesis testing and develop asymptotically uniformly most powerful tests based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-07 Yuya Shimizu , Taisuke Otsu

Model selection for Gaussian concentration graph is based on multiple testing of pairwise conditional independence. In practical applications partial correlation tests are widely used. However it is not known whether partial correlation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-10-04 Koldanov Petr , Koldanov Alexander , Kalyagin Valeriy , Pardalos Panos

We propose a novel continuous testing framework to test the intensities of Poisson Processes. This framework allows a rigorous definition of the complete testing procedure, from an infinite number of hypothesis to joint error rates. Our…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-25 Franck Picard , Patricia Reynaud-Bouret , Etienne Roquain

The empirical probability density function for the conditional distribution of the true value of Poisson distribution parameter on one measurement is constructed by computer experiment. The analysis of the obtained distributions confirms…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 S. I. Bityukov , V. A. Medvedev , V. V. Smirnova , Yu. V. Zernii

In hypothesis testing problems the property of strict unbiasedness describes whether a test is able to discriminate, in the sense of a difference in power, between any distribution in the null hypothesis space and any distribution in the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-11 Andrew McCormack

In the era of fast-paced precision medicine, observational studies play a major role in properly evaluating new treatments in clinical practice. Yet, unobserved confounding can significantly compromise causal conclusions drawn from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-20 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

We consider the power to reject false values of the parameter in Frequentist methods for the calculation of confidence intervals. We connect the power with the physical significance (reliability) of confidence intervals for a parameter…

High Energy Physics - Experiment · Physics 2010-12-23 C. Giunti , M. Laveder

The paper addresses general aspects of experimental data analysis, dealing with the separation of ``signal vs. background''. It consists of two parts. Part I is a tutorial on statistical event classification, Bayesian inference, and test…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-06-30 Rudolf Frühwirth , Winfried Mitaroff

The model representing two independent Poisson processes, labelled as "signal" and "background" and both contributing at the same time to the total number of counted events, is considered from a Bayesian point of view. This is a widely used…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2012-01-16 Diego Casadei

The incorporation of uncertainties to calculations of signal significance in planned experiments is an actual task. Several approaches to this problem are discussed. We present a procedure for taking into account the systematic uncertainty…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2009-11-07 S. I. Bityukov

Two new omnibus tests of uniformity for data on the hypersphere are proposed. The new test statistics exploit closed-form expressions for orthogonal polynomials, feature tuning parameters, and are related to a "smooth maximum" function and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-14 Alberto Fernández-de-Marcos , Eduardo García-Portugués

In the report the approach to estimation of quality of planned experiments is considered. This approach is based on the analysis of uncertainty, which will take place under the future hypotheses testing about the existence of a new…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 S. I. Bityukov , N. V. Krasnikov

We consider the problems of hypothesis testing on a probability measure of independent sample, on solution of ill-posed problem, on deconvolution problem and on Poisson mean measure. For all these setups necessary conditions and sufficient…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-24 Mikhail Ermakov

While running any experiment, we often have to consider the statistical power to ensure an effective study. Statistical power or power ensures that we can observe an effect with high probability if such a true effect exists. However,…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-06-21 Ajinkya K Mulay , Sean Lane , Erin Hennes

We consider the structural change in a class of discrete valued time series that the conditional distribution follows a one-parameter exponential family. We propose a change-point test based on the maximum likelihood estimator of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-03-01 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne

Generalizations to the permutation test are introduced to allow for situations in which the null model is not exchangeable. It is shown that the generalized permutation tests are exact, and a partial converse: that any test function that is…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-03 Jeffrey Roach , William Valdar