Related papers: Importance of direct and indirect triggered seismi…
Most earthquake energy release arises during fault slip many kilometers below the Earth's surface. Understanding earthquakes and their hazard requires mapping the geometry and distribution of this slip. Such finite-fault maps are typically…
Evidence for the triggering of earthquakes by tides has been largely lacking for the continents but detectable in the oceans where the tides are larger. By far the strongest tidal triggering signals are in volcanic areas of mid-ocean…
Inferring physical mechanisms that govern earthquake sequences from geophysical observations remains a challenging task, particularly across tectonically distinct environments where similar seismic patterns can reflect different underlying…
After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…
We prove ergodicity of a point process earthquake model combining the classical stress release model for primary shocks with the Hawkes model for aftershocks.
We have developed a model that describes the major characteristics of a rupture, ranging from regular earthquakes (EQs) to slow slip events (SSEs), including episodic tremor and slip (ETS). Previous model predictions, while accurate, are…
Here a method is presented for detecting precursors of earthquakes from time series data on earthquakes in a target region. Regional Entropy of Seismic Information, a quantity representing the average influence of an earthquake in the…
Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…
Cascades are self-reinforcing processes underlying the systemic risk of many complex systems. Understanding the universal aspects of these phenomena is of fundamental interest, yet typically bound to numerical observations in ad-hoc models…
We study analytically and by numerical simulations the statistics of the aftershocks generated after large avalanches in models of interface depinning that include viscoelastic relaxation effects. We find in all the analyzed cases that the…
Based on a theoretical model for opinion spreading on a network, through avalanches, the effect of external field is now considered, by using methods from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics. The original part contains the implementation…
The probability distribution of inter-event time (IET) between two consecutive earthquakes is a measure for the uncertainty in the occurrence time of earthquakes in a region of interest. It is well known that the IET distribution for…
An information cascade is a circumstance where agents make decisions in a sequential fashion by following other agents. Bikhchandani et al., predict that once a cascade starts it continues, even if it is wrong, until agents receive an…
We examine the effect of small, spatially localized, excitations applied periodically in different manners, on the crackling dynamics of a brittle crack driven slowly in a heterogeneous solid. When properly adjusted, these excitations are…
We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities". The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive…
We proceeded from general physical concepts based, on the one hand, on the Umoff-Poynting theorem, and on the other, on the phenomenological theory of earthquakes, and formulated the following question: What are the directions of energy…
Uncertainty can be classified as either aleatoric (intrinsic randomness) or epistemic (imperfect knowledge of parameters). The majority of frameworks assessing infectious disease risk consider only epistemic uncertainty. We only ever…
When a dynamic earthquake rupture propagates on a fault in the Earth's crust, the medium around the fault is dynamically damaged due to stress concentrations around the rupture tip. Recent field observations, laboratory experiments and…
Crackling dynamics is characterized by a release of incoming energy through intermittent avalanches. The shape, i.e. the internal temporal structure of these avalanches, gives insightful information about the physical processes involved. It…
Phase transitions are fundamental features of statistical physics. While the well-studied continuous phase transitions are known to be controlled by external \textit{macroscopic} changes in the order parameter, the origin of abrupt…