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The residual dependence index of bivariate Gaussian distributions is determined by the correlation coefficient. This tail index is of certain statistical importance when extremes and related rare events of bivariate samples with asymptotic…
We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…
We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior…
This paper explores option portfolio optimization when the underlying returns are skew-elliptical t-distributed. We use the variance and value at risk (VaR) to measure portfolio risk. The novelty of our work is the departure from the…
We consider an investor, whose portfolio consists of a single risky asset and a risk free asset, who wants to maximize his expected utility of the portfolio subject to managing the Value at Risk (VaR) assuming a heavy tailed distribution of…
It is well known that the probability distribution of high-frequency financial returns is characterized by a leptokurtic, heavy-tailed shape. This behavior undermines the typical assumption of Gaussian log-returns behind the standard…
In this paper, we compute multivariate tail risk probabilities where the marginal risks are heavy-tailed and the dependence structure is a Gaussian copula. The marginal heavy-tailed risks are modeled using regular variation which leads to a…
Distortion risk measures are extensively used in finance and insurance applications because of their appealing properties. We present three methods to construct new class of distortion functions and measures. The approach involves the…
Based on suitable left-truncated or censored data, two flexible classes of $M$-estimations of Weibull tail coefficient are proposed with two additional parameters bounding the impact of extreme contamination. Asymptotic normality with…
We develop an extreme value framework for CoVaR centered on $v(q \mid p ; C)$, the copula-adjusted probability level, or equivalently, the CoVaR on the uniform (0,1) scale. We characterize the possible tail regimes of $v(q \mid p ; C)$…
We consider a family of multivariate distributions with heavy-tailed margins and the type I elliptical dependence structure. This class of risks is common in finance, insurance, environmental and biostatistic applications. We obtain the…
Constant-specified and exponential concentration inequalities play an essential role in the finite-sample theory of machine learning and high-dimensional statistics area. We obtain sharper and constants-specified concentration inequalities…
We propose a variational tail bound for norms of random vectors under moment assumptions on their one-dimensional marginals. A simplified version of the bound that parametrizes the ``aggregating distribution'' using a certain pushforward of…
Weibull distribution is widely used in modelling health data. However, its lack of sufficient tail flexibility often results in poor fit in extreme events. We proposed another three-parameter extension of the Weibull distribution with…
The Weibull tail-coefficient (WTC) plays a crucial role in extreme value statistics when dealing with Weibull-type tails. Several distributions, such as normal, Gamma, Weibull, and Logistic distributions, exhibit this type of tail…
This paper introduces a flexible framework for the estimation of the conditional tail index of heavy tailed distributions. In this framework, the tail index is computed from an auxiliary linear regression model that facilitates estimation…
We look at optimal liability-driven portfolios in a family of fat-tailed and extremal risk measures, especially in the context of pension fund and insurance fixed cashflow liability profiles, but also those arising in derivatives books such…
Heavy-tailed probability distributions are extremely useful and play a crucial role in modeling different types of financial data sets. This study presents a two-pronged methodology. First, a mixture probability distribution is created by…
Univariate Weibull distribution is a well-known lifetime distribution and has been widely used in reliability and survival analysis. In this paper, we introduce a new family of bivariate generalized Weibull (BGW) distributions, whose…
Several novel statistical methods have been developed to estimate large integrated volatility matrices based on high-frequency financial data. To investigate their asymptotic behaviors, they require a sub-Gaussian or finite high-order…