Related papers: Earthquake behaviour and large-event predictabilit…
We report a similarity of fluctuations in equilibrium critical phenomena and non-equilibrium systems, which is based on the concept of natural time. The world-wide seismicity as well as that of San Andreas fault system and Japan are…
A statistical model for describing the scaling of the distribution of inter-event times is described. By considering the diverse region seismicity (natural and induced) at different scale levels the self-similarity of the distribution has…
Although our existing one-dimensional (1D) model provides a successful quantitative description of rupture events, a 1D description is somewhat limited. We therefore derive a two-dimensional (2D) model which allows us to investigate…
Using a simple lattice model for granular media, we present a scenario of self-organization that we term self-organized structuring where the steady state has several unusual features: (1) large scale space and/or time inhomogeneities and…
When an amorphous material is strained beyond the point of yielding it enters a state of continual reconfiguration via dissipative, avalanche-like slip events that relieve built-up local stress. However, how the statistics of such events…
We report results of 3D Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations aiming at investigating the role of the boundary vibration in inducing frictional weakening in sheared granular layers. We study the role of different vibration amplitudes…
Shocks in granular media, such as vertically oscillated beds, have been shown to develop instabilities. Similar jet formation has been observed in explosively dispersed granular media. Our previous work addressed this instability by…
We test the concept that seismicity prior to a large earthquake can be understood in terms of the statistical physics of a critical phase transition. In this model, the cumulative seismic strain release increases as a power-law…
Computational earthquake sequence models provide generative estimates of the time, location, and size of synthetic seismic events that can be compared with observed earthquake histories and assessed as rupture forecasts. Here we describe a…
Spatio-temporal correlations of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model of earthquakes are extensively studied by means of numerical computer simulations. Particular attention is paid to clarifying how the statistical…
The behavior of granular media under quasi-static loading has recently been shown to attain a stable evolution state corresponding to a manifold in the space of micromechanical variables. This state is characterized by sudden transitions…
We analyze particle velocity fluctuations in a simulated granular system subjected to homogeneous quasistatic shearing. We show that these fluctuations share the following scaling characteristics of fluid turbulence in spite of their…
We investigate precursors of critical behavior in the quasienergy spectrum due to the dynamical instability in the kicked top. Using a semiclassical approach, we analytically obtain a logarithmic divergence in the density of states, which…
This chapter first presents a rather personal view of some different aspects of predictability, going in crescendo from simple linear systems to high-dimensional nonlinear systems with stochastic forcing, which exhibit emergent properties…
Dense granular systems subjected to an imposed shear stress undergo stick-slip dynamics with systematic patterns of dilation-compaction. During each stick phase, as the frictional strength builds up, the granular system dilates to…
In periodically sheared suspensions there is a dynamical phase transition characterized by a critical strain amplitude $\gamma_c$ between an absorbing state where particle trajectories are reversible and an active state where trajectories…
The final size of an earthquake typically cannot be predicted from its ongoing seismic radiation. Expanding observations reveal distinct exceptions, such as slow earthquakes, injection-induced seismicity, and earthquake swarms, in which…
Physical Wavelets observe the large earthquake genesis processes of several months in a regional seismic catalog, suggesting the predictability of location, fault movement and size, and rupture time with an accuracy of up to a day and up to…
Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…
We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities". The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive…