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We investigate how price variations of a stock are transformed into profits and losses (P&Ls) of a trend following strategy. In the frame of a Gaussian model, we derive the probability distribution of P&Ls and analyze its moments (mean,…
We present and discuss a stochastic model of financial assets dynamics based on the idea of an inverse renormalization group strategy. With this strategy we construct the multivariate distributions of elementary returns based on the scaling…
Stochastic dynamics of a nonconserved scalar order parameter near its critical point, subject to random stirring and mixing, is studied using the field theoretic renormalization group. The stirring and mixing are modelled by a random…
This manuscript reports a stochastic dynamical scenario whose associated stationary probability density function is exactly a previously proposed one to adjust high-frequency traded volume distributions. This dynamical conjecture,…
This paper introduces time-continuous numerical schemes to simulate stochastic differential equations (SDEs) arising in mathematical finance, population dynamics, chemical kinetics, epidemiology, biophysics, and polymeric fluids. These…
In this paper we provide compelling evidence of cyclical mean reversion and multiperiod stock return predictability over horizons of about 30 years with a half-life of about 15 years. This implies that the US stock market follows a…
We propose novel randomized geometric tools to detect low-volatility anomalies in stock markets; a principal problem in financial economics. Our modeling of the (detection) problem results in sampling and estimating the (relative) volume of…
The study of the critical dynamics in complex systems is always interesting yet challenging. Here, we choose financial market as an example of a complex system, and do a comparative analyses of two stock markets - the S&P 500 (USA) and…
Summarized by the efficient market hypothesis, the idea that stock prices fully reflect all available information is always confronted with the behavior of real-world markets. While there is plenty of evidence indicating and quantifying the…
In a recent letter [PRL 80 (1998) 3539] Fisher, Le Doussal and Monthus report new predictions for the persistence properties of Sinai's model, which they obtain by using an approximate real space renormalization group scheme. In this…
Advances in deep neural network (DNN) architectures have enabled new prediction techniques for stock market data. Unlike other multivariate time-series data, stock markets show two unique characteristics: (i) \emph{multi-order dynamics}, as…
Trading styles can be classified into either trend-following or mean-reverting. If the net trading style is trend-following the traded asset is more likely to move in the same direction it moved previously (the opposite is true if the net…
Investigations of inverse statistics (a concept borrowed from turbulence) in stock markets, exemplified with filtered Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ, have uncovered a novel stylized fact that the distribution of exit time…
We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…
Stock selection attempts to rank a list of stocks for optimizing investment decision making, aiming at minimizing investment risks while maximizing profit returns. Recently, researchers have developed various (recurrent) neural…
A classical random walk $(S_t, t\in\mathbb{N})$ is defined by $S_t:=\displaystyle\sum_{n=0}^t X_n$, where $(X_n)$ are i.i.d. When the increments $(X_n)_{n\in\mathbb{N}}$ are a one-order Markov chain, a short memory is introduced in the…
Stochastic systems characterised by a random driving in a form of the general stable noise are considered. The particle experiences long rests due to the traps the density of which is position-dependent and obeys a power-law form attributed…
Convergence rate analyses of random walk Metropolis-Hastings Markov chains on general state spaces have largely focused on establishing sufficient conditions for geometric ergodicity or on analysis of mixing times. Geometric ergodicity is a…
We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people's actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science,…
We consider the problem of controlling a Markov decision process (MDP) with a large state space, so as to minimize average cost. Since it is intractable to compete with the optimal policy for large scale problems, we pursue the more modest…