Related papers: Role and meaning of subjective probability: some c…
In the last months, due to the emergency of Covid-19, questions related to the fact of belonging or not to a particular class of individuals (`infected or not infected'), after being tagged as `positive' or `negative' by a test, have never…
Philosophers now seem to agree that frequentism is an untenable strategy to explain the meaning of probabilities. Nevertheless, I want to revive frequentism, and I will do so by grounding probabilities on typicality in the same way as the…
In a recent article, Khrennikov claims that a particular theorem about agreement between quantum measurement results poses a problem for the interpretation of quantum mechanics known as QBism. Considering the basic setup of that theorem in…
Probability theory can be modified in essentially one way while maintaining consistency with the basic Bayesian framework. This modification results in copies of standard probability theory for real, complex or quaternion probabilities.…
Algorithmic probability has shown some promise in dealing with the probability problem in the Everett interpretation, since it provides an objective, single-case probability measure. Many find the Everettian cosmology to be overly…
Human understanding of randomness and variation is shaped by a number of cognitive biases. Here we relate a lesser-known cognitive bias, the "outcome orientation", to medical questions and describe the harm that the outcome orientation can…
An agent observes a clue, and an analyst observes an inference: a ranking of events on the basis of how corroborated they are by the clue. We prove that if the inference satisfies the axioms of Villegas (1964) except for the classic…
The experimental setup of the self-referential quantum measurement, jovially known as the "quantum suicide" or the "quantum Russian roulette" is analyzed from the point of view of the Principal Principle of David Lewis. It is shown that the…
The theory of probability and the quantum theory, the one mathematical and the other physical, are related in that each admits a number of very different interpretations. It has been proposed that the conceptual problems of the quantum…
A review of various definitions of "compatibility" expressed in terms of ordinary probability, and a discussion of the occurrence of incompatibility (and the related phenomenon of interference) in non-quantal probabilistic systems.
There are important problems in physics related to the concept of probability. One of these problems is related to negative probabilities used in physics from 1930s. In spite of many demonstrations of usefulness of negative probabilities,…
In the Bayesian approach to probability theory, probability quantifies a degree of belief for a single trial, without any a priori connection to limiting frequencies. In this paper we show that, despite being prescribed by a fundamental…
Mathematics is a limited component of solutions to real-world problems, as it expresses only what is expected to be true if all our assumptions are correct, including implicit assumptions that are omnipresent and often incorrect.…
Quantum mechanics may be formulated as Sensible Quantum Mechanics (SQM) so that it contains nothing probabilistic, except, in a certain frequency sense, conscious perceptions. Sets of these perceptions can be deterministically realized with…
It is well known that a Bayesian probability forecast for all future observations should be a probability measure in order to satisfy a natural condition of coherence. The main topics of this paper are the evolution of the Bayesian…
The main result presented in this article is that probability can fundamentally be characterized as a subset of conditional expectation induced by a plausible preorder on random quantities. This is justified by the fact that probability is…
Objective probability in quantum mechanics is often thought to involve a stochastic process whereby an actual future is selected from a range of possibilities. Everett's seminal idea is that all possible definite futures on the pointer…
The subjective Bayesian interpretation of probability asserts that the rules of the probability calculus follow from the normative principle of Dutch-book coherence: A decision-making agent should not assign probabilities such that a series…
It is argued that the nature of probability is essentially informational rather than physical and that quantum mechanical predictions should be viewed as logical inferences made on the basis of the information content of a given…
By embedding uncertainty into time, we obtain a conjoint axiomatic characterization of both Exponential Discounting and Subjective Expected Utility that accommodates arbitrary state and outcome spaces. In doing so, we provide a novel and…