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We develop a new Bayesian modelling framework for the class of higher-order, variable-memory Markov chains, and introduce an associated collection of methodological tools for exact inference with discrete time series. We show that a version…

Though ubiquitous as first-principles models for conservative phenomena, Hamiltonian systems present numerous challenges for model reduction even in relatively simple, linear cases. Here, we present a method for the projection-based model…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-07-12 Anthony Gruber , Irina Tezaur

This paper deals with fractional differential equations, with dependence on a Caputo fractional derivative of real order. The goal is to show, based on concrete examples and experimental data from several experiments, that fractional…

General Mathematics · Mathematics 2016-11-03 Ricardo Almeida , Nuno R. O. Bastos , M. Teresa T. Monteiro

Compressed Counting (CC), based on maximally skewed stable random projections, was recently proposed for estimating the p-th frequency moments of data streams. The case p->1 is extremely useful for estimating Shannon entropy of data…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2009-10-09 Ping Li

In a split conformal framework with $K$ classes, a calibration sample of $n$ labeled examples is observed for inference on the label of a new unlabeled example. We explore the setting where a `batch' of $m$ independent such unlabeled…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-03-19 Ulysse Gazin , Ruth Heller , Etienne Roquain , Aldo Solari

Clustering, or grouping, dataset elements based on similarity can be used not only to classify a dataset into a few categories, but also to approximate it by a relatively large number of representative elements. In the latter scenario,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-09-13 Tim Jaschek , Marko Bucyk , Jaspreet S. Oberoi

We present a new fractional Taylor formula for singular functions whose Caputo fractional derivatives are of bounded variation. It bridges and ``interpolates" the usual Taylor formulas with two consecutive integer orders. This enables us to…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-11-02 Wenjie Liu , Li-Lian Wang , Boying Wu

We establish some quantitative concentration estimates for the empirical measure of many independent variables, in transportation distances. As an application, we provide some error bounds for particle simulations in a model mean field…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-19 Francois Bolley , Arnaud Guillin , Cedric Villani

The Generalized Fermi Breakup recently demonstrated to be formally equivalent to the Statistical Multifragmentation Model, if the contribution of excited states are included in the state densities of the former, is implemented. Since this…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2014-08-29 S. R. Souza , B. V. Carlson , R. Donangelo , W. G. Lynch , M. B. Tsang

Partially recorded data are frequently encountered in many applications and usually clustered by first removing incomplete cases or features with missing values, or by imputing missing values, followed by application of a clustering…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-20 Emily M. Goren , Ranjan Maitra

The paper outlines an exact combinatorial approach to finite coagulating systems. In this approach, cluster sizes and time are discrete, and the binary aggregation alone governs the time evolution of the systems. By considering the growth…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-02-21 Agata Fronczak , Anna Chmiel , Piotr Fronczak

When expert systems based on causal probabilistic networks (CPNs) reach a certain size and complexity, the "combinatorial explosion monster" tends to be present. We propose an approximation scheme that identifies rarely occurring cases and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Frank Jensen , S. K. Anderson

Growth in both size and complexity of modern data challenges the applicability of traditional likelihood-based inference. Composite likelihood (CL) methods address the difficulties related to model selection and computational intractability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-12 Zhendong Huang , Davide Ferrari

A finite element scheme for an entirely fractional Allen-Cahn equation with non-smooth initial data is introduced and analyzed. In the proposed nonlocal model, the Caputo fractional in-time derivative and the fractional Laplacian replace…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-06 Gabriel Acosta , Francisco Bersetche

In this work, we discuss the implications of a recently obtained equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation on the extension of the available Monte Carlo methods based on the consideration of the Gibbs canonical ensemble to account for…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2013-07-31 L. Velazquez , S. Curilef

We propose a new method, probabilistic divide-and-conquer, for improving the success probability in rejection sampling. For the example of integer partitions, there is an ideal recursive scheme which improves the rejection cost from…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-11-25 Richard Arratia , Stephen DeSalvo

Explaining complex or seemingly simple machine learning models is an important practical problem. We want to explain individual predictions from a complex machine learning model by learning simple, interpretable explanations. Shapley values…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-07 Kjersti Aas , Martin Jullum , Anders Løland

We introduce a new, quadratically convergent algorithm for finding maximum absolute value entries of tensors represented in the canonical format. The computational complexity of the algorithm is linear in the dimension of the tensor. We…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-09-13 Matthew J Reynolds , Gregory Beylkin , Alireza Doostan

A common approach in computational science is to use a set of of highly precise but expensive calculations to parameterize a model that allows less precise, but more rapid calculations on larger scale systems. Least-squares fitting on a…

Materials Science · Physics 2015-05-13 Eric Cockayne , Axel van de Walle

The present report extends the method of fixed point clustering (Phys.Rev. E 61,5, R4691-4693, 2000) by introducing an indirect criterion for the number of clusters. The derived probability function allows an objective distinction of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Hutt , F. Kruggel