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This white paper lays out a vision of research and development in the field of artificial intelligence for the next decade (and beyond). Its denouement is a cyber-physical ecosystem of natural and synthetic sense-making, in which humans are…

In the last few decades or so, we witness a paradigm shift in our nature studies - from a data-processing based computational approach to an information-processing based cognitive approach. The process is restricted and often misguided by…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2015-05-20 Emanuel Diamant

We live in a world brimming with uncertainty, where we constantly have to make a lot of decisions under incomplete information. We are firm believers that our subjective belief cannot be computed by rigorous mathematical formula; instead…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-02-08 Lizhi Xin , Kevin Xin , Houwen Xin

A unified theory of language combines a Bayesian cognitive linguistic model of language processing, with the proposal that language evolved by sexual selection for the display of intelligence. The theory accounts for the major facts of…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-29 Robert Worden

Public debates driven by incomplete scientific data where nobody can claim absolute certainty, due to current state of scientific knowledge, are studied. The cases of evolution theory, global warming and H1N1 pandemic influenza are…

Popular Physics · Physics 2015-05-18 Serge Galam

At what level does selective pressure effectively act? When considering the reproductive dynamics of interacting and mutating agents, it has long been debated whether selection is better understood by focusing on the individual or if…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-11-02 Hardik Rajpal , Clem von Stengel , Pedro A. M. Mediano , Fernando E. Rosas , Eduardo Viegas , Pablo A. Marquet , Henrik J. Jensen

Consider a population of organisms that harvest free energy from their environment to reproduce. This paper shows that if the organisms' reproductive rates are proportional to the amount of physical free energy that they can convert into…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-25 Seth Lloyd

A first-principles theory is developed for the general evolution of a key structural characteristic of planar granular systems - the cell order distribution. The dynamic equations are constructed and solved in closed form for a number of…

Materials Science · Physics 2015-05-04 Raphael Blumenfeld

Instructive influence of environment on heredity has been a debated topic for centuries. Darwin's identification of natural selection coupled to chance variation as the driving force for evolution, against a formal interpretation proposed…

Genomics · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Antoine Danchin

The Semantic Theory of Evolution (STE) takes the existence of a number of arbitrary communication codes as a fundamental feature of life, from the genetic code to human cultural communication codes. Their arbitrariness enables, at each…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-07-01 Guido Fioretti

Real-world generalization, e.g., deciding to approach a never-seen-before animal, relies on contextual information as well as previous experiences. Such a seemingly easy behavioral choice requires the interplay of multiple neural…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-01-17 Peer Herholz , Eddy Fortier , Mariya Toneva , Nicolas Farrugia , Leila Wehbe , Valentina Borghesani

The growth rate of organisms depends both on external conditions and on internal states, such as the expression levels of various genes. We show that to achieve a criterion mean growth rate over an ensemble of conditions, the internal…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-12-31 Samuel F. Taylor , Naftali Tishby , William Bialek

Motivated reasoning posits that people distort how they process information in the direction of beliefs they find attractive. This paper creates a novel experimental design to identify motivated reasoning from Bayesian updating when people…

General Economics · Economics 2022-05-26 Michael Thaler

Information can evolve as a physical consequence of non-equilibrium dynamics, even in the absence of genes, replication, or predefined fitness functions. We present Stability-Driven Assembly (SDA), a framework in which stochastic assembly…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-05-11 Dan Adler

Despite the obvious advantage of simple life forms capable of fast replication, different levels of cognitive complexity have been achieved by living systems in terms of their potential to cope with environmental uncertainty. Against the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-10-18 Luís F Seoane , Ricard Solé

We introduce a mathematically rigorous framework for an artificial intelligence system composed of probabilistic agents evolving through structured competition and belief revision. The architecture, grounded in Bayesian inference, measure…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Craig Steven Wright

Theoretical physics is the search for simple and universal mathematical descriptions of the natural world. In contrast, much of modern biology is an exploration of the complexity and diversity of life. For many, this contrast is prima facie…

Biological Physics · Physics 2024-01-23 William Bialek

A simple but useful method of reciprocal values is introduced, explained and illustrated. This method simplifies the analysis of hyperbolic distributions, which are causing serious problems in the demographic and economic research. It…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-30 Ron W. Nielsen

What is information, physically, and why does it so reliably emerge in living, cultural, and technological systems? Existing theories quantify uncertainty, cost, or compressibility, but do not identify which physical structures count as…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-12-17 Wouter van der Wijngaart

The Extended Evolutionary Synthesis (EES) is beginning to fulfill the whole promise of Darwinian insight through its extension of evolutionary understanding from the biological domain to include cultural information evolution. Several…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2019-07-17 Cameron M. Smith , Liane Gabora , William Gardner-O'Kearney