Related papers: Dynamical epidemic suppression using stochastic pr…
A systematic approach to design robust control protocols against the influence of different types of noise is introduced. We present control schemes which protect the decay of the populations avoiding dissipation in the adiabatic and…
The theory of life history evolution provides a powerful framework to understand the evolutionary dynamics of pathogens in both epidemic and endemic situations. This framework, however, relies on the assumption that pathogen populations are…
Deterministic evolutionary theory robustly predicts that populations displaying altruistic behaviours will be driven to extinction by mutant cheats that absorb common benefits but do not themselves contribute. Here we show that when…
The diffusive epidemic process is a paradigmatic example of an absorbing state phase transition in which healthy and infected individuals spread with different diffusion constants. Using stochastic activity spreading simulations in…
The abrupt outbreak and transmission of biological diseases has always been a long-time concern of humankind. For long, mathematical modeling has served as a simple and yet efficient tool to investigate, predict, and control spread of…
Strong positive feedback is considered a necessary condition to observe abrupt shifts of ecosystems. A few previous studies have shown that demographic noise -- arising from the probabilistic and discrete nature of birth and death processes…
Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on biotic and abiotic factors. Classical work showed that demographic stochasticity causes the mean time to extinction to increase…
This paper deals with a new epidemiological model of SIRS with stochastic perturbations. The primary objective is to establish the existence of a unique non-negative nonlocal solution. Using the basic reproduction number $\mathscr{R}_0$…
Consider a uniformly mixing population which grows as a super-critical linear birth and death process. At some time an infectious disease (of SIR or SEIR type) is introduced by one individual being infected from outside. It is shown that…
We present a generic epidemic model with stochastic parameters, in which the dynamics self-organize to a critical state with suppressed exponential growth. More precisely, the dynamics evolve into a quasi-steady-state, where the effective…
During infectious disease epidemics, pathogen transmission occurs in host populations made up of interacting subpopulations. Using stochastic simulation and analytical approximations, we examine how outbreak sizes in networked populations…
Interactions in ecological communities are inherently nonlinear and can lead to complex population dynamics including irregular fluctuations induced by chaos. Chaotic population dynamics can exhibit violent oscillations with extremely small…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
We study individual-based dynamics in finite populations, subject to randomly switching environmental conditions. These are inspired by models in which genes transition between on and off states, regulating underlying protein dynamics.…
Many real world networks are characterized by adaptive changes in their topology depending on the dynamic state of their nodes. Here we study epidemic dynamics in an adaptive network, where susceptibles are able to avoid contact with…
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra-…
There has been much recent interest in modelling epidemics on networks, particularly in the presence of substantial clustering. Here, we develop pairwise methods to answer questions that are often addressed using epidemic models, in…
We develop a stochastic two-patch epidemic model with nonlinear recidivism to investigate infectious disease dynamics in heterogeneous populations. Extending a deterministic framework, we introduce stochasticity to account for random…
Epidemic models are always simplifications of real world epidemics. Which real world features to include, and which simplifications to make, depend both on the disease of interest and on the purpose of the modelling. In the present paper we…
We present a stochastic epidemic model to study the effect of various preventive measures, such as uniform reduction of contacts and transmission, vaccination, isolation, screening and contact tracing, on a disease outbreak in a…