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Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-22 Marin Biloš , Kashif Rasul , Anderson Schneider , Yuriy Nevmyvaka , Stephan Günnemann

Motivated by stochastic models of climate phenomena, the steady-state of a linear stochastic model with additive Gaussian white noise is studied. Fluctuation theorems for nonequilibrium steady-states provide a constraint on the character of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-01-04 Jeffrey B. Weiss

A fundamental issue in nonlinear dynamics and statistical physics is how to distinguish chaotic from stochastic fluctuations in short experimental recordings. This dilemma underlies many complex systems models from stochastic gene…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2010-04-12 Chi-Sang Poon , Cheng Li , Guo-Qiang Wu

The paper deals with a certain class of random evolutions. We develop a construction that yields an invariant measure for a continuous-time Markov process with random transitions. The approach is based on a particular way of constructing…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-20 Y. Belopolskaya , Y. Suhov

Inferring dynamical models from low-resolution temporal data continues to be a significant challenge in biophysics, especially within transcriptomics, where separating molecular programs from noise remains an important open problem. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-05 Victor Chardès , Suryanarayana Maddu , Michael J. Shelley

This paper deals with the analysis of stochastic systems which can be described by a Langevin equation. By the method presented in this paper drift and diffusion terms of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation can be extracted from the…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-10-31 S. Siegert , R. Friedrich , J. Peinke

We propose a mechanism which produces periodic variations of the degree of predictability in dynamical systems. It is shown that even in the absence of noise when the control parameter changes periodically in time, below and above the…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-22 A. Crisanti , M. Falcioni , G. Paladin , A. Vulpiani

A general formalism is developed to construct a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are therefore internal to the system and not externally specified. For…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-09-15 Joseph D. Challenger , Duccio Fanelli , Alan J. McKane

We examine the regenerative cutting process by using a single degree of freedom non-smooth model with a friction component and a time delay term. Instead of the standard Lyapunov exponent calculations, we propose a statistical 0-1 test…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2012-01-25 Grzegorz Litak , Sven Schubert , Guenter Radons

Ordinary differential equation models are used to describe dynamic processes across biology. To perform likelihood-based parameter inference on these models, it is necessary to specify a statistical process representing the contribution of…

The recently proposed statistical finite element (statFEM) approach synthesises measurement data with finite element models and allows for making predictions about the unknown true system response. We provide a probabilistic error analysis…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-17 Toni Karvonen , Fehmi Cirak , Mark Girolami

Filtered Poisson processes are often used as reference models for intermittent fluc- tuations in physical systems. Such a process is here extended by adding a noise term, either as a purely additive term to the process or as a dynamical…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2018-05-04 Audun Theodorsen , Odd Erik Garcia , Martin Rypdal

Recent work in dynamical systems theory has shown that many properties that are associated with irreversible processes in fluids can be understood in terms of the dynamical properties of reversible, Hamiltonian systems. That is,…

chao-dyn · Physics 2015-06-24 J. R. Dorfman

Two types of random evolution processes are studied for ensembles of the standard map with driving parameter $K$ that determines its degree of stochasticity. For one type of processes the parameter $K$ is chosen at random from a Gaussian…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2015-10-28 Or Alus , Shmuel Fishman

We propose a computational method for large deviation statistics of time-averaged quantities in general Markov processes. In our proposed method, we repeat a response measurement against external forces, where the forces are determined by…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-03-12 Takahiro Nemoto , Shin-ichi Sasa

A functional method for calculating averages of the time-ordered exponential of a continuous isotropic random $N\times N$ matrix process is presented. The process is not assumed to be Gaussian. In particular, the Lyapunov exponents and…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2016-05-04 Anton S. Il'yn , Valeria A. Sirota , Kirill P. Zybin

We propose an interpolation expression using the difference moment (Kolmogorov transient structural function) of the second order as the average characteristic of displacements for identifying the anomalous diffusion in complex processes…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2010-08-25 Serge F. Timashev , Yuriy S. Polyakov , Pavel I. Misurkin , Sergey G. Lakeev

We derive the exact bifurcation diagram of the Duffing oscillator with parametric noise thanks to the analytical study of the associated Lyapunov exponent. When the fixed point is unstable for the underlying deterministic dynamics, we show…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Kirone Mallick , Philippe Marcq

Diffusion models generate high-quality synthetic data. They operate by defining a continuous-time forward process which gradually adds Gaussian noise to data until fully corrupted. The corresponding reverse process progressively "denoises"…

Generative diffusion models are extensively used in unsupervised and self-supervised machine learning with the aim to generate new samples from a probability distribution estimated with a set of known samples. They have demonstrated…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2026-01-28 Wilfried Genuist , Éric Savin , Filippo Gatti , Didier Clouteau
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