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A new algorithm is presented for reconstructing stochastic nonlinear dynamical models from noisy time-series data. The approach is analytical; consequently, the resulting algorithm does not require an extensive global search for the model…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-10 V. N. Smelyanskiy , D. G. Luchinsky , D. A. Timucin , A. Bandrivskyy

The rate of entropy production provides a useful quantitative measure of a non-equilibrium system and estimating it directly from time-series data from experiments is highly desirable. Several approaches have been considered for stationary…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-02-21 Shun Otsubo , Sreekanth K Manikandan , Takahiro Sagawa , Supriya Krishnamurthy

Nonlinear systems are capable of displaying complex behavior even if this is the result of a small number of interacting time scales. A widely studied case is when complex dynamics emerges out of a nonlinear system being forced by a simple…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2015-06-01 Leandro M. Alonso

The literature is rich with studies, analyses, and examples on parameter estimation for describing the evolution of chaotic dynamical systems based on measurements, even when only partial information is available through observations.…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-08-07 Michele Baia , Tommaso Matteuzzi , Franco Bagnoli

We present an optimization-based method for the joint estimation of system parameters and noise covariances of linear time-variant systems. Given measured data, this method maximizes the likelihood of the parameters. We solve the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Léo Simpson , Andrea Ghezzi , Jonas Asprion , Moritz Diehl

A low-dimensional dynamical system is observed in an experiment as a high-dimensional signal; for example, a video of a chaotic pendulums system. Assuming that we know the dynamical model up to some unknown parameters, can we estimate the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-24 Ofir Lindenbaum , Amir Sagiv , Gal Mishne , Ronen Talmon

We study the problem of identifying the dynamics of a linear system when one has access to samples generated by a similar (but not identical) system, in addition to data from the true system. We use a weighted least squares approach and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-13 Lei Xin , Lintao Ye , George Chiu , Shreyas Sundaram

We propose an online algorithm for tracking a multidimensional time-varying parameter of a time series, which is also allowed to be a predictable process with respect to the underlying time series. The algorithm is driven by a gain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-11-15 Eduard Belitser , Paulo Serra

We propose a simple method of constructing a system of differential equations of chaotic behavior based on the regression only from a scalar observable time-series data. The estimated system enables us to reconstruct invariant sets and…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2022-09-28 Natsuki Tsutsumi , Kengo Nakai , Yoshitaka Saiki

Nonlinear and non-stationary processes are prevalent in various natural and physical phenomena, where system dynamics can change qualitatively due to bifurcation phenomena. Traditional machine learning methods have advanced our ability to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-21 Keita Tokuda , Yuichi Katori

In this work, we consider the problem of online (real-time, single-shot) estimation of static or slow-varying parameters along quantum trajectories in quantum dynamical systems. Based on the measurement signal of a continuously-monitored…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2024-06-19 Henrik Glavind Clausen , Pierre Rouchon , Rafal Wisniewski

A novel approach to the problem of partial state estimation of nonlinear systems is proposed. The main idea is to translate the state estimation problem into one of estimation of constant, unknown parameters related to the systems initial…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-04-08 Ortega Romeo , Bobtsov Alexey , Pyrkin Anton , Aranovskiy Stanislav

We present an adaptation of Stein's method of normal approximation to the study of both discrete- and continuous-time dynamical systems. We obtain new correlation-decay conditions on dynamical systems for a multivariate central limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-01-12 Olli Hella , Juho Leppänen , Mikko Stenlund

In this paper we propose a solution to the problem of parameter estimation of nonlinearly parameterized regressions--continuous or discrete time--and apply it for system identification and adaptive control. We restrict our attention to…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-18 Romeo Ortega , Vladislav Gromov , Emmanuel Nuño , Anton Pyrkin , Jose Guadalupe Romero

We discuss how to characterize the behavior of a chaotic dynamical system depending on a parameter that varies periodically in time. In particular, we study the predictability time, the correlations and the mean responses, by defining a…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-28 A Crisanti , M. Falcioni , G. Lacorata , R. Purini , A. Vulpiani

An approach for the description of stochastic systems is derived. Some of the variables in the system are studied forward in time, others backward in time. The approach is based on a perturbation expansion in the strength of the coupling…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-08-04 Piero Olla

Real world evolves in continuous time but computations are done from finite samples. Therefore, we study algorithms using finite observations in continuous-time linear dynamical systems. We first study the system identification problem, and…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-09-30 Hongyi Zhou , Jingwei Li , Jingzhao Zhang

Parameter estimation in linear errors-in-variables models typically requires that the measurement error distribution be known (or estimable from replicate data). A generalized method of moments approach can be used to estimate model…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-04 Linh Nghiem , Michael Byrd , Cornelis Potgieter

Dynamical modelling lies at the heart of our understanding of physical systems. Its role in science is deeper than mere operational forecasting, in that it allows us to evaluate the adequacy of the mathematical structure of our models.…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-06-05 Hailiang Du , Leonard A. Smith

Progress on modern scientific questions regularly depends on using large-scale datasets to understand complex dynamical systems. An especially challenging case that has grown to prominence with advances in single-cell sequencing…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2024-08-27 Aden Forrow