Related papers: Speculative bubbles and fat tail phenomena in a he…
Using high frequency data, we have studied empirically the change of volatility, also called volatility derivative, for various time horizons. In particular, the correlation between the volatility derivative and the volatility realized in…
An exact solution is presented to a model that mimics the crowding effect in financial markets which arises when groups of agents share information. We show that the size distribution of groups of agents has a power law tail with an…
We extend the model of rational bubbles of Blanchard and of Blanchard and Watson to arbitrary dimensions d: a number d of market time series are made linearly interdependent via d times d stochastic coupling coefficients. We first show that…
Large deviations for fat tailed distributions, i.e. those that decay slower than exponential, are not only relatively likely, but they also occur in a rather peculiar way where a finite fraction of the whole sample deviation is concentrated…
A microeconomic approach is proposed to derive the fluctuations of risky asset price, where the market participants are modeled as prospect trading agents. As asset price is generated by the temporary equilibrium between demand and supply,…
Prices in financial markets exhibit extreme jumps far more often than can be accounted for by external news. Further, magnitudes of price changes are correlated over long times. These so called stylized facts are quantified by scaling laws…
We present a novel microscopic stock market model consisting of a large number of random agents modeling traders in a market. Each agent is characterized by a set of parameters that serve to make iterated predictions of two successive…
We present results on simulations of a stock market with heterogeneous, cumulative information setup. We find a non-monotonic behaviour of traders' returns as a function of their information level. Particularly, the average informed agents…
We introduce a minimal Agent Based Model with two classes of agents, fundamentalists (stabilizing) and chartists (destabilizing) and we focus on the essential features which can generate the stylized facts. This leads to a detailed…
Large distributed multiagent systems are characterized by vast numbers of agents trying to gain access to limited resources in an unpredictable environment. Agents in these system continuously switch strategies in order to opportunistically…
The financial market is nonpredictable, as according to the Bachelier, the mathematical expectation of the speculator is zero. Nevertheless, we observe in the price fluctuations the two distinct scales, short and long time. Behaviour of a…
We build an agent-based model to study how the interplay between low- and high-frequency trading affects asset price dynamics. Our main goal is to investigate whether high-frequency trading exacerbates market volatility and generates flash…
We build a simple model of leveraged asset purchases with margin calls. Investment funds use what is perhaps the most basic financial strategy, called "value investing", i.e. systematically attempting to buy underpriced assets. When funds…
We investigate the full dynamics of capital allocation and wealth distribution of heterogeneous agents in a frictional economy during booms and busts using tools from mean-field games. Two groups in our models, namely the expert and the…
We introduce a $\phi^{4}$ lattice field theory with frustrated dynamics as a multi-agent system to reproduce stylized facts of financial markets such as fat-tailed distributions of returns and clustered volatility. Each lattice site,…
We present a financial market model, characterized by self-organized criticality, that is able to generate endogenously a realistic price dynamics and to reproduce well-known stylized facts. We consider a community of heterogeneous traders,…
We suggest an empirical model of investment strategy returns which elucidates the importance of non-Gaussian features, such as time-varying volatility, asymmetry and fat tails, in explaining the level of expected returns. Estimating the…
An agent-based model for firms' dynamics is developed. The model consists of firm agents with identical characteristic parameters and a bank agent. Dynamics of those agents is described by their balance sheets. Each firm tries to maximize…
We investigate the financial market dynamics by introducing a heterogeneous agent-based opinion formation model. In this work, we organize the individuals in a financial market by their trading strategy, namely noise traders and…
We document and analyze the empirical facts concerning one of the clearest evidence of speculation in financial trading as observed in the postage collection stamp market. We unravel some of the mechanisms of speculative behavior which…