Related papers: Forecasting Portfolio Risk in Normal and Stressed …
A classical portfolio theory deals with finding the optimal proportion in which an agent invests a wealth in a risk-free asset and a probabilistic risky asset. Formulating and solving the problem depend on how the risk is represented and…
This study delves into the intricate realm of risk evaluation within the domain of specific financial derivatives, notably options. Unlike other financial instruments, like bonds, options are susceptible to broader risks. A distinctive…
Risk budgeting is a portfolio strategy where each asset contributes a prespecified amount to the aggregate risk of the portfolio. In this work, we propose an efficient numerical framework that uses only simulations of returns for estimating…
Volatility is the canonical measure of financial risk, a role largely inherited from Modern Portfolio Theory. Yet, its universality rests on restrictive efficiency assumptions that render volatility, at best, an incomplete proxy for true…
In this paper, a new way to integrate volatility information for estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) of a portfolio is suggested. The new method is developed from the perspective of Bayesian statistics and it…
This paper considers the problem of measuring the credit risk in portfolios of loans, bonds, and other instruments subject to possible default under multi-factor models. Due to the amount of the portfolio, the heterogeneous effect of…
Assessing the contribution of various risk factors to future inflation risks was crucial for guiding monetary policy during the recent high inflation period. However, existing methodologies often provide limited insights by focusing solely…
It is often the case that risk assessment and prognostics are viewed as related but separate tasks. This chapter describes a risk-based approach to prognostics that seeks to provide a tighter coupling between risk assessment and fault…
The variance measures the portfolio risks the investors are taking. The investor, who holds his portfolio and doesn't trade his shares, at the current time can use the time series of the market trades that were made during the averaging…
In this article there is no intention to repeat basic concepts about risk management, but we will try to define why often is usefull the time series analysis during the assessment of risks, and how is possible to compute a significative…
Forward-looking correlations are of interest in different financial applications, including factor-based asset pricing, forecasting stock-price movements or pricing index options. With a focus on non-FX markets, this paper defines necessary…
Common asset holding by financial institutions, namely portfolio overlap, is nowadays regarded as an important channel for financial contagion with the potential to trigger fire sales and thus severe losses at the systemic level. In this…
The global balance is a well-known indicator of the behavior of a signed network. Recent literature has introduced the concept of local balance as a measure of the contribution of a single node to the overall balance of the network. In the…
Finding the hedge ratios for a portfolio and risk compression is the same mathematical problem. Traditionally, regression is used for this purpose. However, regression has its own limitations. For example, in a regression model, we can't…
In the paper, we use and investigate copulas models to represent multivariate dependence in financial time series. We propose the algorithm of risk measure computation using copula models. Using the optimal mean-$CVaR$ portfolio we compute…
This note discusses some of the aspects of a model for the covariance of equity returns based on a simple "isotropic" structure in which all pairwise correlations are taken to be the same value. The effect of the structure on feasible…
We propose a novel approach to infer investors' risk preferences from their portfolio choices, and then use the implied risk preferences to measure the efficiency of investment portfolios. We analyze a dataset spanning a period of six…
Financial Distress Prediction plays a crucial role in the economy by accurately forecasting the number and probability of failing structures, providing insight into the growth and stability of a country's economy. However, predicting…
Managing investment portfolios is an old and well know problem in multiple fields including financial mathematics and financial engineering as well as econometrics and econophysics. Multiple different concepts and theories were used so far…
The processes of the averaged regression quantiles and of their modifications provide useful tools in the regression models when the covariates are not fully under our control. As an application we mention the probabilistic risk assessment…