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The paper deals with studying a connection of the Littlewood--Offord problem with estimating the concentration functions of some symmetric infinitely divisible distributions. It is shown that the values at zero of the concentration…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-04 Andrei Yu. Zaitsev

We consider an infinitely divisible random field indexed by $\mathbb{R}^d$, $d\in\mathbb{N}$, given as an integral of a kernel function with respect to a L\'evy basis with a L\'evy measure having a regularly varying right tail. First we…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-04 Anders Rønn-Nielsen , Mads Stehr

Let $Y=\sum_{k\ge 1} 1_{A_k}$ be an infinite sum of the indicators of independent events. We investigate a precise (as opposed to logarithmic) first-order asymptotic behavior of the tail probabilities $\mathbb{P}\{Y\ge n\}$ and the point…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-10 Alexander Iksanov , Valeriya Kotelnikova

The authors announce a general tail estimate, called a decoupling inequality, for a symmetrized sum of non-linear $k$-correlations of $n>k$ independent random variables.

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2016-09-06 Victor H. de la Peña , Stephen J. Montgomery-Smith

We present an analytical technique to compute the probability of rare events in which the largest eigenvalue of a random matrix is atypically large (i.e.\ the right tail of its large deviations). The results also transfer to the left tail…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-05-26 Antoine Maillard

Correcting for skewness can result in more accurate tail probability approximations in the central limit theorem for sums of independent random variables. In this paper, we extend the theory to sums of local statistics of independent random…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-04-05 Xiao Fang , Li Luo , Qi-Man Shao

We introduce a new stochastic order for the tail dependence between random variables. We then study different measures of tail dependence which are monotone in the proposed order, thereby extending various known tail dependence coefficients…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-08-23 Karl Friedrich Siburg , Christopher Strothmann , Gregor Weiß

This note presents an operational measure of fat-tailedness for univariate probability distributions, in $[0,1]$ where 0 is maximally thin-tailed (Gaussian) and 1 is maximally fat-tailed. Among others,1) it helps assess the sample size…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-04-30 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Ernst Roos , Ruud Brekelmans , Wouter van Eekelen , Dick den Hertog , Johan van Leeuwaarden

We obtain concentration and large deviation for the sums of independent and identically distributed random variables with heavy-tailed distributions. Our concentration results are concerned with random variables whose distributions satisfy…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-27 Milad Bakhshizadeh , Arian Maleki , Victor H. de la Pena

This work prepares new probability bounds for sums of random, independent, Hermitian tensors. These probability bounds characterize large-deviation behavior of the extreme eigenvalue of the sums of random tensors. We extend Lapalace…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-01-01 Shih Yu Chang

Strong laws of large numbers are established for random fields with weak or strong dependence. These limit theorems are applicable to random fields with heavy-tailed distributions including fractional stable random fields. The conditions…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-26 Erkan Nane , Yimin Xiao , Aklilu Zeleke

For a set of dependent random variables, without stationary or the strong mixing assumptions, we derive the asymptotic independence between their sums and maxima. Then we apply this result to high-dimensional testing problems, where we…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-05-12 Long Feng , Tiefeng Jiang , Xiaoyun Li , Binghui Liu

We obtain some optimal inequalities on tail probabilities for sums of independent bounded random variables. Our main result completes an upper bound on tail probabilities due to Talagrand by giving a one-term asymptotic expansion for large…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-03 Xiequan Fan , Ion Grama , Quansheng Liu

The aim of this paper is to show a possibility to identify multivariate distribution by means of specially constructed one-dimensional random variable. We give some inequalities which may appear to helpful for a construction of multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-17 Lev B. Klebanov , Irina V. Volchenkova

We show an extension of Sanov's theorem on large deviations, controlling the tail probabilities of i.i.d. random variables with matching concentration and anti-concentration bounds. This result has a general scope, applies to samples of any…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Akshay Balsubramani

We propose three measures of mutual dependence between multiple random vectors. All the measures are zero if and only if the random vectors are mutually independent. The first measure generalizes distance covariance from pairwise dependence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-18 Ze Jin , David S. Matteson

Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-14 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

A survey is given of some Chernoff type bounds for the tail probabilities P(X-EX > a) and P(X-EX < a) when X is a random variable that can be written as a sum of indicator variables that are either independent or negatively related. Most…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-05 Svante Janson

A perturbative approach is used to derive approximations of arbitrary order to estimate high percentiles of sums of positive independent random variables that exhibit heavy tails. Closed-form expressions for the successive approximations…

Applications · Statistics 2015-03-20 Lorenzo Hernández , Jorge Tejero , Alberto Suárez , Santiago Carrillo-Menéndez