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We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Daphne Aurouet , Valentin Patilea

We consider a mean-field system of path-dependent stochastic interacting diffusions in random media over a finite time window. The interaction term is given as a function of the empirical measure and is allowed to be non-linear and path…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-03 Rangel Baldasso , Alan Pereira , Guilherme Reis

We consider the boundary driven harmonic model, i.e. the Markov process associated to the open integrable XXX chain with non-compact spins. Using the factorial moments we characterize the stationary measure as a mixture of product measures.…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-10-04 Gioia Carinci , Chiara Franceschini , Rouven Frassek , Cristian Giardinà , Frank Redig

We study the fluctuations of systems modeled by Markov jump processes with periodic generators. We focus on observables defined through time-periodic functions of the system's states or transitions. Using large deviation theory, canonical…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-04-22 Lydia Chabane , Raphaël Chétrite , Gatien Verley

Markov processes restarted or reset at random times to a fixed state or region in space have been actively studied recently in connection with random searches, foraging, and population dynamics. Here we study the large deviations of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-01-06 Janusz M. Meylahn , Sanjib Sabhapandit , Hugo Touchette

The zig-zag process is a piecewise deterministic Markov process in position and velocity space. The process can be designed to have an arbitrary Gibbs type marginal probability density for its position coordinate, which makes it suitable…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-24 Joris Bierkens , Pierre Nyquist , Mikola C. Schlottke

We have shown recently that a Markov process conditioned on rare events involving time-integrated random variables can be described in the long-time limit by an effective Markov process, called the driven process, which is given…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-12-17 Raphael Chetrite , Hugo Touchette

We study the mean-field limit and stationary distributions of a pulse-coupled network modeling the dynamics of a large neuronal assemblies. Our model takes into account explicitly the intrinsic randomness of firing times, contrasting with…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-17 Philippe Robert , Jonathan D. Touboul

Let $\Delta^o$ be a finite set and, for each probability measure $m$ on $\Delta^o$, let $G(m)$ be a transition probability kernel on $\Delta^o$. Fix $x_0 \in \Delta^o$ and consider the chain $\{X_n, \; n \in \mathbb{N}_0\}$ of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-15 Amarjit Budhiraja , Adam Waterbury , Pavlos Zoubouloglou

We prove pathwise large deviation principles of slow variables in slow-fast systems in the limit of time-scale separation tending to infinity. In the limit regime we consider, the convergence of the slow variable to its deterministic limit…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-25 Richard C. Kraaij , Mikola C. Schlottke

We consider a simple discrete-time Markov chain with values in $[0,\infty)^{Z^d}$. The Markov chain describes various interesting examples such as oriented percolation, directed polymers in random environment, time discretizations of binary…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-06-26 Nobuo Yoshida

The basic question in perturbation analysis of Markov chains is: how do small changes in the transition kernels of Markov chains translate to chains in their stationary distributions? Many papers on the subject have shown, roughly, that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Na Lin , Yuanyuan Liu , Aaron Smith

We describe an exact approach for calculating transition probabilities and waiting times in finite-state discrete-time Markov processes. All the states and the rules for transitions between them must be known in advance. We can then…

Other Condensed Matter · Physics 2009-11-11 Semen A. Trygubenko , David J. Wales

The large deviations properties of trajectory observables for chaotic non-invertible deterministic maps as studied recently by N. R. Smith, Phys. Rev. E 106, L042202 (2022) and by R. Gutierrez, A. Canella-Ortiz, C. Perez-Espigares,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-01-30 Cecile Monthus

We are studying stationary random processes with conditional polynomial moments that allow a continuous path modification. Processes with continuous path modification, are important because they are relatively easy to simulate. One does not…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-21 Paweł J. Szabłowski

The purpose of this paper is to ensure the conditions of G\"artner-Ellis Theorem for evaluations of the empirical measure. We show that up-to-date conditions for ensuring the convergence to a quasi-stationary distribution can be applied…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-21 Aurélien Velleret

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-30 Alberto Pasanisi , Shuai Fu , Nicolas Bousquet

In this paper, we consider a general class of two-time-scale Markov chains whose transition rate matrix depends on a parameter $\lambda>0$. We assume that some transition rates of the Markov chain will tend to infinity as…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-07-10 Chen Jia

In the last few decades, noise-induced large fluctuations and transition phenomena have garnered significant attention in a variety of scientific contexts. The concept of prehistory probability has been proposed within the framework of…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-10 Feng Zhao , Jinjie Zhu , Yang Li , Xianbin Liu , Dongping Jin

We consider an irreducible continuous time Markov chain on a finite state space and with time periodic jump rates and prove the joint large deviation principle for the empirical measure and flow and the joint large deviation principle for…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-17 L. Bertini , R. Chetrite , A. Faggionato , D. Gabrielli
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