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Constrained Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs) are notably more complex to solve than standard MDPs due to the absence of universally optimal policies across all initial state distributions. This necessitates re-solving the CMDP whenever the…
For multivariate time series driven by underlying states, hidden Markov models (HMMs) constitute a powerful framework which can be flexibly tailored to the situation at hand. However, in practice it can be challenging to choose an adequate…
Variational inference algorithms have proven successful for Bayesian analysis in large data settings, with recent advances using stochastic variational inference (SVI). However, such methods have largely been studied in independent or…
A nonhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov model is proposed to segment toroidal time series according to a finite number of latent regimes and, simultaneously, estimate the influence of time-varying covariates on the process' survival under each…
Analysis of sequential event data has been recognized as one of the essential tools in data modeling and analysis field. In this paper, after the examination of its technical requirements and issues to model complex but practical situation,…
Particle Marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) is a general approach to Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable, but can be estimated unbiasedly. Our article develops an efficient PMMH method that scales up better to higher…
Recommender systems help users find relevant items of interest based on the past preferences of those users. In many domains, however, the tastes and preferences of users change over time due to a variety of factors and recommender systems…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic methods in which observations are seen as realizations of a latent Markov process with discrete states that switch over time. Moving beyond standard statistical tests, HMMs offer a statistical…
Longitudinal data are characterized by the dependence between observations coming from the same individual. In a regression perspective, such a dependence can be usefully ascribed to unobserved features (covariates) specific to each…
Infinite Hidden Markov Models (iHMM's) are an attractive, nonparametric generalization of the classical Hidden Markov Model which can automatically infer the number of hidden states in the system. However, due to the infinite-dimensional…
One of the fundamental problems in machine learning is the estimation of a probability distribution from data. Many techniques have been proposed to study the structure of data, most often building around the assumption that observations…
We provide a new strategy built on the divide-and-conquer approach by Lindsten et al. (2017) to investigate the smoothing problem in a hidden Markov model. We employ this approach to decompose a hidden Markov model into sub-models with…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are ubiquitous in time-series modelling, with applications ranging from chemical reaction modelling to speech recognition. These HMMs are often large, with high-dimensional memories. A recently-proposed…
Hidden Markov model (HMM) has been successfully used for sequential data modeling problems. In this work, we propose to power the modeling capacity of HMM by bringing in neural network based generative models. The proposed model is termed…
Automated fault localization is an important issue in model validation and verification. It helps the end users in analyzing the origin of failure. In this work, we show the early experiments with probabilistic analysis approaches in fault…
Discrete flow models offer a powerful framework for learning distributions over discrete state spaces and have demonstrated superior performance compared to the discrete diffusion models. However, their convergence properties and error…
Autonomous agents require the capability to identify dynamic objects in their environment for safe planning and navigation. Incomplete and erroneous dynamic detections jeopardize the agent's ability to accomplish its task. Dynamic detection…
In this paper, we show the convergence rates of posterior distributions of the model dynamics in a MDP for both episodic and continuous tasks. The theoretical results hold for general state and action space and the parameter space of the…
In a variety of online settings involving interaction with end-users it is critical for the systems to adapt to changes in user preferences. User preferences on items tend to change over time due to a variety of factors such as change in…
The approximation of fixed-interval smoothing distributions is a key issue in inference for general state-space hidden Markov models (HMM). This contribution establishes non-asymptotic bounds for the Forward Filtering Backward Smoothing…