Related papers: Estimating the Fractal Dimension of the S&P 500 In…
We study the volatility of the S&P500 stock index from 1984 to 1996 and find that the volatility distribution can be very well described by a log-normal function. Further, using detrended fluctuation analysis we show that the volatility is…
Wavelets provide the flexibility to analyse stochastic processes at different scales. Here, we apply them to multivariate point processes as a means of detecting and analysing unknown non-stationarity, both within and across data streams.…
We study the statistical properties of volatility---a measure of how much the market is likely to fluctuate. We estimate the volatility by the local average of the absolute price changes. We analyze (a) the S&P 500 stock index for the…
It has been recently shown that spot volatilities can be very well modeled by rough stochastic volatility type dynamics. In such models, the log-volatility follows a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter smaller than 1/2. This…
In this paper we have analyzed scaling properties and cyclical behavior of the three types of stock market indexes (SMI) time series: data belonging to stock markets of developed economies, emerging economies, and of the underdeveloped or…
In this paper we consider a fractional stochastic volatility model, that is a model in which the volatility may exhibit a long-range dependent or a rough/antipersistent behavior. We propose a dynamic sequential Monte Carlo methodology that…
Scale invariance (fractality) is a prominent feature of the large-scale behavior of many stochastic systems. In this work, we construct an algorithm for the statistical identification of the Hurst distribution (in particular, the scaling…
Financial Times Series such as stock price and exchange rates are, often, non-linear and non-stationary. Use of decomposition models has been found to improve the accuracy of predictive models. The paper proposes a hybrid approach…
Considering that both the entropy-based market information and the Hurst exponent are useful tools for determining whether the efficient market hypothesis holds for a given asset, we study the link between the two approaches. We thus…
It is proposed a class of statistical estimators $\hat H =(\hat H_1, \ldots, \hat H_d)$ for the Hurst parameters $H=(H_1, \ldots, H_d)$ of fractional Brownian field via multi-dimensional wavelet analysis and least squares, which are…
We introduce wavelet-based methodology for estimation of realized variance allowing its measurement in the time-frequency domain. Using smooth wavelets and Maximum Overlap Discrete Wavelet Transform, we allow for the decomposition of the…
Predicting the S&P 500 index volatility is crucial for investors and financial analysts as it helps assess market risk and make informed investment decisions. Volatility represents the level of uncertainty or risk related to the size of…
Accurate volatility forecasting is essential in banking, investment, and risk management, because expectations about future market movements directly influence current decisions. This study proposes a hybrid modelling framework that…
High-frequency measurements and images acquired from various sources in the real world often possess a degree of self-similarity and inherent regular scaling. When data look like a noise, the scaling exponent may be the only informative…
We develop a GMM approach for estimation of log-normal stochastic volatility models driven by a fractional Brownian motion with unrestricted Hurst exponent. We show that a parameter estimator based on the integrated variance is consistent…
The characteristic feature of the discrete scale invariant (DSI) processes is the invariance of their finite dimensional distributions by dilation for certain scaling factor. DSI process with piecewise linear drift and stationary increments…
In numerous applications data are observed at random times and an estimated graph of the spectral density may be relevant for characterizing and explaining phenomena. By using a wavelet analysis, one derives a nonparametric estimator of the…
While a substantial literature on structural break change point analysis exists for univariate time series, research on large panel data models has not been as extensive. In this paper, a novel method for estimating panel models with…
The conventional formal tool to detect effects of the financial persistence is in terms of the Hurst exponent. A typical corresponding result is that its value comes out close to 0.5, as characteristic for geometric Brownian motion, with at…
We introduce a novel distribution-based estimator for the Hurst parameter of log-volatility, leveraging the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to assess the scaling behavior of entire distributions rather than individual moments. To address the…