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We study the work fluctuations of a particle, confined to a moving harmonic potential, under the influence of friction and external Poissonian shot noise. The asymmetry of the noise induces an effective nonlinearity in the potential, which…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-13 A. Baule , E. G. D. Cohen

This paper investigates the approximation of Gaussian random variables in Banach spaces, focusing on the high-probability bounds for the approximation of Gaussian random variables using finitely many observations. We derive non-asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-28 Daniel Winkle , Ingo Steinwart , Bernard Haasdonk

We show bounds on tail probabilities for quadratic forms in sub-gaussian non-necessarily independent random variables. Our main tool will be estimates of the Luxemburg norms of such forms. This will allow us to formulate the above-mentioned…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-14 Krzysztof Zajkowski

We study noisy computation in randomly generated k-ary Boolean formulas. We establish bounds on the noise level above which the results of computation by random formulas are not reliable. This bound is saturated by formulas constructed from…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2014-11-21 Alexander Mozeika , David Saad

Since its original formulation, Jensen's inequality has played a fundamental role across mathematics, statistics, and machine learning, with its probabilistic version highlighting the nonnegativity of the so-called Jensen's gap, i.e., the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-11 Marcin Mazur , Tadeusz Dziarmaga , Piotr Kościelniak , Łukasz Struski

Sparse variational approximations are popular methods for scaling up inference and learning in Gaussian processes to larger datasets. For $N$ training points, exact inference has $O(N^3)$ cost; with $M \ll N$ features, state of the art…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-15 Talay M Cheema , Carl Edward Rasmussen

Estimates are constructed for the deviation of the concentration functions of sums of independent random variables with finite variances from the folded normal distribution function without any assumptions concerning the existence of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-11 V. Yu. Korolev , A. V. Dorofeeva

This report introduces general ideas and some basic methods of the Bayesian probability theory applied to physics measurements. Our aim is to make the reader familiar, through examples rather than rigorous formalism, with concepts such as:…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-11-10 G. D'Agostini

In applied research, Lee (2009) bounds are widely applied to bound the average treatment effect in the presence of selection bias. This paper extends the methodology of Lee bounds to accommodate outcomes in a general metric space, such as…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-01-15 Daisuke Kurisu , Yuta Okamoto , Taisuke Otsu

We study estimation of a multivariate function $f:{\bf R}^d \to {\bf R}$ when the observations are available from function $Af$, where $A$ is a known linear operator. Both the Gaussian white noise model and density estimation are studied.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-04-21 Jussi Klemelä , Enno Mammen

Maximum likelihood estimators for time-dependent mean functions within Gaussian processes are provided in the context of continuous observations. We find the widest possible class of mean functions for which the likelihood function can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-09 Mitsuki Kobayashi , Yuto Nishiwaki , Yasutaka Shimizu , Nobutoki Takaoka

In this paper, we establish lower and upper Gaussian bounds for the probability density of the mild solution to the stochastic heat equation with multiplicative noise and in any space dimension. The driving perturbation is a Gaussian noise…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-12 Eulalia Nualart , Lluís Quer-Sardanyons

We describe a web of connections between the following topics: the mathematical theory of voting and social choice; the computational complexity of the Maximum Cut problem; the Gaussian Isoperimetric Inequality and Borell's generalization…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-05 Ryan O'Donnell

Considering the problem of risk-sensitive parameter estimation, we propose a fairly wide family of lower bounds on the exponential moments of the quadratic error, both in the Bayesian and the non--Bayesian regime. This family of bounds,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-03-02 Neri Merhav

Confirmation bias, the tendency to interpret information in a way that aligns with one's preconceptions, can profoundly impact scientific research, leading to conclusions that reflect the researcher's hypotheses even when the observational…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-09 Amnon Balanov , Tamir Bendory , Wasim Huleihel

We determine the asymptotic distribution of the sum of correlated variables described by a matrix product ansatz with finite matrices, considering variables with finite variances. In cases when the correlation length is finite, the law of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-01-08 Florian Angeletti , Eric Bertin , Patrice Abry

We study the problem of bounding the posterior distribution of discrete probabilistic programs with unbounded support, loops, and conditioning. Loops pose the main difficulty in this setting: even if exact Bayesian inference is possible,…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2024-12-06 Fabian Zaiser , Andrzej S. Murawski , C. -H. Luke Ong

Inspired by the analysis of variance (ANOVA) decomposition of functions we propose a Gaussian-Uniform mixture model on the high-dimensional torus which relies on the assumption that the function we wish to approximate can be well explained…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-08-21 Johannes Hertrich , Fatima Antarou Ba , Gabriele Steidl

We give the first non-trivial upper bounds on the average sensitivity and noise sensitivity of polynomial threshold functions. More specifically, for a Boolean function f on n variables equal to the sign of a real, multivariate polynomial…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2014-03-28 Prahladh Harsha , Adam Klivans , Raghu Meka

Many high-dimensional statistical inference problems are believed to possess inherent computational hardness. Various frameworks have been proposed to give rigorous evidence for such hardness, including lower bounds against restricted…