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We consider a two-dimensional Hamiltonian system perturbed by a small diffusion term, whose coefficient is state-dependent and non-degenerate. As a result, the process consists of the fast motion along the level curves and slow motion…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-24 Shuo Yan

We prove a large deviation principle for stochastic differential equations driven by semimartingales, with additive controls. Conditions are given in terms of characteristics of driven semimartingales, so that if the noise-control pairs…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-08-13 Qiao Huang , Wei Wei , Jinqiao Duan

We study wide Bayesian neural networks focusing on the rare but statistically dominant fluctuations that govern posterior concentration, beyond Gaussian-process limits. Large-deviation theory provides explicit variational objectives-rate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-27 Katerina Papagiannouli , Dario Trevisan , Giuseppe Pio Zitto

A large deviations principle is established for the joint law of the empirical measure and the flow measure of a renewal Markov process on a finite graph. We do not assume any bound on the arrival times, allowing heavy tailed distributions.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-18 Mauro Mariani , Lorenzo Zambotti

In this article, we discuss the sharp moderate and large deviations between the quantiles of population and the quantiles of samples. Cram\'{e}r type moderate deviations and Bahadur-Rao type large deviations are established with some mild…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-03 Xiequan Fan

The nonparametric estimation of integrated diffusion processes has been extensively studied, with most existing research focusing on pointwise convergence. This paper is the first to establish uniform convergence rates for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-20 Shaolin Ji , Linlin Zhu

We present two examples of a large deviations principle where the rate function is not strictly convex. This is motivated by a model used in mathematical finance (the Heston model), and adds a new item to the zoology of non strictly convex…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-19 Stefano De Marco , Antoine Jacquier , Patrick Roome

This work concerns about multiscale multivalued McKean-Vlasov stochastic systems. First of all, we use a contractive mapping principle to establish the well-posedness for fully coupled multivalued McKean-Vlasov stochastic systems under…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-30 Huijie Qiao

Covariate shift in regression problems and the associated distribution mismatch between training and test data is a commonly encountered phenomenon in machine learning. In this paper, we extend recent results on nonparametric convergence…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-05-28 Lukas Trottner

In a regression model with multiple response variables and multiple explanatory variables, if the difference of the mean vectors of the response variables for different values of explanatory variables is always in the direction of the first…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-17 Koji Tsukuda , Shun Matsuura

The term moderate deviations is often used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fills the gap between a convergence in probability of some random variables to a constant and a weak convergence…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-11-20 Rita Giuliano , Claudio Macci , Barbara Pacchiarotti

Let $M_{l,n}$ be the number of blocks with frequency $l$ in the exchangeable random partition induced by a sample of size $n$ from the Ewens-Pitman sampling model. We show that, as $n$ tends to infinity, $n^{-1}M_{l,n}$ satisfies a large…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-07-01 Stefano Favaro , Shui Feng

Large and moderate deviation principles are proved for Engel continued fractions, a new type of continued fraction expansion with non-decreasing partial quotients in number theory.

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-29 Lulu Fang , Lei Shang

High-dimensional covariates often admit linear factor structure. To effectively screen correlated covariates in high-dimension, we propose a conditional variable screening test based on non-parametric regression using neural networks due to…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-08-21 Jianqing Fan , Weining Wang , Yue Zhao

While both classical and neural network classifiers can achieve high accuracy, they fall short on offering uncertainty bounds on their predictions, making them unfit for safety-critical applications. Existing kernel-based classifiers that…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Shreeram Murali , Cristian R. Rojas , Dominik Baumann

We develop a rigorous statistical theory of multi-head attention (MHA) as an ensemble of Nadaraya-Watson (NW) kernel regression estimators. Building on the algebraic identity between single-head softmax attention and the NW estimator, we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-21 Ernest Fokoué

This paper studies large deviation principles and weak convergence, both at the level of finite-dimensional distributions and in functional form, for a class of continuous, isotropic, centered Gaussian random fields defined on the unit…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-09 Simmaco Di Lillo , Claudio Macci , Barbara Pacchiarotti

The large deviations principles are established for a class of multidimensional degenerate stochastic differential equations with reflecting boundary conditions. The results include two cases where the initial conditions are adapted and…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Zongxia Liang

We study the Nadaraya-Watson (N-W) estimator for the drift function of two-sided reflected stochastic processes. We propose a discrete-type N-W estimator and a continuous-type N-W estimator based on the discretely observed processes and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-05-03 Han Yuecai , Zhang Dingwen

In this article, we develop a framework to study the large deviation principle for matrix models and their quantized versions, by tilting the measures using the limits of spherical integrals obtained in [46,47]. As examples, we obtain 1. a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-04-25 Serban Belinschi , Alice Guionnet , Jiaoyang Huang