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This paper introduces a method to approximate Gaussian process regression by representing the problem as a stochastic differential equation and using variational inference to approximate solutions. The approximations are compared with full…
An algorithm is described that enables efficient deterministic approximate computation of the bootstrap distribution for any linear bootstrap method $T_n^*$, alleviating the need for repeated resampling from observations (resp.…
We observe $n$ inhomogeneous Poisson processes with covariates and aim at estimating their intensities. We assume that the intensity of each Poisson process is of the form $s (\cdot, x)$ where $x$ is the covariate and where $s$ is an…
We model thermostatic devices using a stochastic hybrid description, and introduce an external actuation mechanism that creates random switch events in the discrete dynamics. We then conjecture the form of the Fokker-Planck equation and…
We consider the residual empirical process in random design regression with long memory errors. We establish its limiting behaviour, showing that its rates of convergence are different from the rates of convergence for to the empirical…
For a wide class of continuous-time Markov processes, including all irreducible hypoelliptic diffusions evolving on an open, connected subset of $\RL^d$, the following are shown to be equivalent: (i) The process satisfies (a slightly weaker…
We analyze the Gaussian approximation as a method to obtain the first and second moments of a stochastic process described by a master equation. We justify the use of this approximation with ideas coming from van Kampen's expansion approach…
Observing a stationary time series, we propose a two-step procedure for the prediction of the next value of the time series. The first step follows machine learning theory paradigm and consists in determining a set of possible predictors as…
The method of potential solutions of Fokker-Planck equations is used to develop a transport equation for the joint probability of N coupled stochastic variables with the Dirichlet distribution as its asymptotic solution. To ensure a bounded…
An approximation method is presented for probabilistic inference with continuous random variables. These problems can arise in many practical problems, in particular where there are "second order" probabilities. The approximation, based on…
This paper presents a stochastic approach to theorems concerning the behavior of iterations of the Bernstein operator $B_n$ taking a continuous function $f \in C[0,1]$ to a degree-$n$ polynomial when the number of iterations $k$ tends to…
Recent empirical studies suggest that the volatility of an underlying price process may have correlations that decay slowly under certain market conditions. In this paper, the volatility is modeled as a stationary process with long-range…
In this article we present the Durrmeyer variant of generalized Bernstein operators that preserve the constant functions involving non-negative parameter ?. We derive the approximation behaviour of these operators including global…
This work considers a stochastic model in which the uncertainty is driven by a multidimensional Brownian motion. The market price of risk process makes the transition between real world probability measure and risk neutral probability…
The paper develops no arbitrage results for trajectory based models by imposing general constraints on the trading portfolios. The main condition imposed, in order to avoid arbitrage opportunities, is a local continuity requirement on the…
Efficient sampling for the conditional time integrated variance process in the Heston stochastic volatility model is key to the simulation of the stock price based on its exact distribution. We construct a new series expansion for this…
The purpose of this article is to derive the crossover from the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process to energy solutions of the stochastic Burgers equation with characteristic operators given in terms of fractional operators, such as the regional…
We study approximations to a class of vector-valued equations of Burgers type driven by a multiplicative space-time white noise. A solution theory for this class of equations has been developed recently in [Hairer, Weber, Probab. Theory…
In this dissertation two simple models of stock exchange are developed and simulated numerically. The first is characterized by centralized trading with a market maker. Unfortunately, this model is unable to generate realistic market…
In this paper, we investigate a second-order stochastic algorithm for solving large-scale binary classification problems. We propose to make use of a new hybrid stochastic Newton algorithm that includes two weighted components in the…