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Calibration is a popular framework to evaluate whether a classifier knows when it does not know - i.e., its predictive probabilities are a good indication of how likely a prediction is to be correct. Correctness is commonly estimated…
Governance theory has quietly relied on a rough cognitive comparability between governors and governed. The assumption is load-bearing, and this paper tries to show why by making it testable. The vehicle is a six-dimension evaluation…
Exchangeable arrays are natural tools to model common forms of dependence between units of a sample. Jointly exchangeable arrays are well suited to dyadic data, where observed random variables are indexed by two units from the same…
A recent article proposed reduced mutual information for evaluation of clustering, classification and community detection. The motivation is that the standard normalized mutual information (NMI) may give counter-intuitive answers under…
Finding "true" clusters in a data set is a challenging problem. Clustering solutions obtained using different models and algorithms do not necessarily provide compact and well-separated clusters or the optimal number of clusters. Cluster…
The paper addresses the problem of finding the causal direction between two associated variables. The proposed solution is to build an autoencoder of their joint distribution and to maximize its estimation capacity relative to both the…
We present a technique to study normalizing strategies when termination is asymptotic, that is, it appears as a limit, as opposite to reaching a normal form in a finite number of steps. Asymptotic termination occurs in several settings,…
PAC-Bayesian learning bounds are of the utmost interest to the learning community. Their role is to connect the generalization ability of an aggregation distribution $\rho$ to its empirical risk and to its Kullback-Leibler divergence with…
PAC-Bayesian bounds are known to be tight and informative when studying the generalization ability of randomized classifiers. However, they require a loose and costly derandomization step when applied to some families of deterministic…
In the partially-observed outcome setting, a recent set of proposals known as "prediction-powered inference" (PPI) involve (i) applying a pre-trained machine learning model to predict the response, and then (ii) using these predictions to…
For data assumed to come from a finite mixture with an unknown number of components, it has become common to use Dirichlet process mixtures (DPMs) not only for density estimation, but also for inferences about the number of components. The…
Inequalities may appear in many models. They can be as simple as assuming a parameter is nonnegative, possibly a regression coefficient or a treatment effect. This paper focuses on the case that there is only one inequality and proposes a…
Models of contagion arise broadly both in the biological and social sciences, with applications ranging from the transmission of infectious diseases to the diffusion of innovations and the spread of cultural fads. In this Letter, we…
Regression tasks, notably in safety-critical domains, require proper uncertainty quantification, yet the literature remains largely classification-focused. In this light, we introduce a family of measures for total, aleatoric, and epistemic…
To conduct Bayesian inference with large data sets, it is often convenient or necessary to distribute the data across multiple machines. We consider a likelihood function expressed as a product of terms, each associated with a subset of the…
Non-iterative normal modal logics are defined by axioms of modal degree 1. In this paper we use calculations with normal forms to determine the set of all possible non-iterative normal modal logics, unimodal propositional extensions of K.…
Machine Learning techniques have become pervasive across a range of different applications, and are now widely used in areas as disparate as recidivism prediction, consumer credit-risk analysis and insurance pricing. The prevalence of…
An appropriate distance metric is crucial for categorical data clustering, as the distance between categorical data cannot be directly calculated. However, the distances between attribute values usually vary in different clusters induced by…
Composite indicators are widely used to score or classify units evaluated on multiple criteria. Their construction typically involves aggregating criteria evaluations, a common practice in Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA). Beyond…
In causal inference, sensitivity models assess how unmeasured confounders could alter causal analyses, but the sensitivity parameter -- which quantifies the degree of unmeasured confounding -- is often difficult to interpret. For this…