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In this paper we consider two generalizations of Lancaster's (Review of Economic Studies, 2002) Modified Maximum Likelihood estimator (MMLE) for the panel AR(1) model with fixed effects, arbitrary initial conditions, and strictly exogenous…
The emerging field of learning-augmented online algorithms uses ML techniques to predict future input parameters and thereby improve the performance of online algorithms. Since these parameters are, in general, real-valued functions, a…
Learning of low-rank matrices is fundamental to many machine learning applications. A state-of-the-art algorithm is the rank-one matrix pursuit (R1MP). However, it can only be used in matrix completion problems with the square loss. In this…
Auto-regressive moving-average (ARMA) models are ubiquitous forecasting tools. Parsimony in such models is highly valued for their interpretability and computational tractability, and as such the identification of model orders remains a…
Autoregressive models (ARMs) currently hold state-of-the-art performance in likelihood-based modeling of image and audio data. Generally, neural network based ARMs are designed to allow fast inference, but sampling from these models is…
Process reward models (PRMs) allow for fine-grained credit assignment in reinforcement learning (RL), and seemingly contrast with outcome reward models (ORMs), which assign a single reward to an entire trajectory. However, we provide…
Researchers are increasingly turning to machine learning (ML) algorithms to investigate causal heterogeneity in randomized experiments. Despite their promise, ML algorithms may fail to accurately ascertain heterogeneous treatment effects…
We develop a novel approach to tackle the common but challenging problem of conformal inference for missing data in machine learning, focusing on Missing at Random (MAR) data. We propose a new procedure Conformal prediction for Missing data…
As a popular meta-learning approach, the model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML) algorithm has been widely used due to its simplicity and effectiveness. However, the convergence of the general multi-step MAML still remains unexplored. In this…
A linear multiple regression model in function spaces is formulated, under temporal correlated errors. This formulation involves kernel regressors. A generalized least-squared regression parameter estimator is derived. Its asymptotic…
We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…
In this paper we revisit one of the classical statistical problems, the so-called sparse maximum-likelihood (ML) linear regression. As a way of attacking this type of regression, we present a novel CLuP mechanism that to a degree relies on…
We present a continuous formulation of machine learning, as a problem in the calculus of variations and differential-integral equations, in the spirit of classical numerical analysis. We demonstrate that conventional machine learning models…
Single-parameter summaries of variable effects in regression settings are desirable for ease of interpretation. However (partially) linear models for example, which would deliver these, may fit poorly to the data. On the other hand, an…
A novel ordinal regression algorithm, called moving window regression (MWR), is proposed in this paper. First, we propose the notion of relative rank ($\rho$-rank), which is a new order representation scheme for input and reference…
We consider the problem of reconstructing a signal from multi-layered (possibly) non-linear measurements. Using non-rigorous but standard methods from statistical physics we present the Multi-Layer Approximate Message Passing (ML-AMP)…
In this paper we address the problem of predicting a time series using the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model, under minimal assumptions on the noise terms. Using regret minimization techniques, we develop effective online learning…
The Pseudo-Marginal (PM) algorithm is a popular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method used to sample from a target distribution when its density is inaccessible, but can be estimated with a non-negative unbiased estimator. Its performance…
In many applications, such as economics, operations research and reinforcement learning, one often needs to estimate a multivariate regression function f subject to a convexity constraint. For example, in sequential decision processes the…
Seemingly unrelated linear regression models are introduced in which the distribution of the errors is a finite mixture of Gaussian components. Identifiability conditions are provided. The score vector and the Hessian matrix are derived.…