Related papers: Pile-up probabilities for the Laplace likelihood e…
A preference order or ranking aggregated from pairwise comparison data is commonly understood as a strict total order. However, in real-world scenarios, some items are intrinsically ambiguous in comparisons, which may very well be an…
Let $L_{n}$ be the least common multiple of a random set of integers obtained from $\{1,\ldots,n\}$ by retaining each element with probability $\theta\in (0,1)$ independently of the others. We prove that the process $(\log L_{\lfloor…
Here we suppose that the observed random variable has cumulative distribution function $F$ with regularly varying tail, i.e. $1-F \in RV_{-\alpha}$, $\alpha > 0$. Using the results about exponential order statistics we investigate…
We study stochastic approximation algorithms with Markovian noise and constant step-size $\alpha$. We develop a method based on infinitesimal generator comparisons to study the bias of the algorithm, which is the expected difference between…
We consider the simple exclusion process in the integer segment $ [1, N]$ with $k\le N/2$ particles and spatially inhomogenous jumping rates. A particle at site $x\in [ 1, N]$ jumps to site $x-1$ (if $x\ge 2$) at rate $1-\omega_x$ and to…
We present a method for computing the likelihood of a mixed hitting-time model that specifies durations as the first time a latent L\'evy process crosses a heterogeneous threshold. This likelihood is not generally known in closed form, but…
A particle entering a scattering and absorbing medium executes a random walk through a sequence of scattering events. The particle ultimately achieves first-passage, leaving the medium or it is absorbed. The Kubelka-Munk model describes a…
We define a novel class of additive models, called Extended Latent Gaussian Models, that allow for a wide range of response distributions and flexible relationships between the additive predictor and mean response. The new class covers a…
We prove for an arbitrary one-dimensional random walk with independent increments that the probability of crossing a level at a given time n has the order of square root of n. Moment or symmetry assumptions are not necessary. In removing…
Random walks on expanders play a crucial role in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, derandomization, graph theory, and distributed computing. A desirable property is that they are rapidly mixing, which is equivalent to having a spectral…
The inference of the causal relationship between a pair of observed variables is a fundamental problem in science, and most existing approaches are based on one single causal model. In practice, however, observations are often collected…
Intermittent demand fluctuations pose significant challenges in disaster logistics and medical supply systems. In this study, we formulate cumulative demand as a generalized L\'evy process composed of a drift term, Poisson jumps, and…
Sampling permutations from S_n is a fundamental problem from probability theory. The nearest neighbor transposition chain \cal{M}}_{nn} is known to converge in time \Theta(n^3 \log n) in the uniform case and time \Theta(n^2) in the constant…
We consider an integer-valued time series $Y=(Y_t)_{t\in\Z}$ where the models after a time $k^*$ is Poisson autoregressive with the conditional mean that depends on a parameter $\theta^*\in\Theta\subset\R^d$. The structure of the process…
We consider together the retrospective and the sequential change-point detection in a general class of integer-valued time series. The conditional mean of the process depends on a parameter $\theta^*$ which may change over time. We propose…
We consider the problem of localization of Poisson source by the observations of inhomogeneous Poisson processes. We suppose that there are $k$ detectors on the plane and each detector provides the observations of Poisson processes whose…
We study asymptotic properties of maximum likelihood estimators of drift parameters for a jump-type Heston model based on continuous time observations, where the jump process can be any purely non-Gaussian L\'evy process of not necessarily…
The subject of robust estimation in time series is widely discussed in literature. One of the approaches is to use GM-estimation. This method incorporates a broad class of nonparametric estimators which under suitable conditions includes…
In this article we describe a method for carrying out Bayesian estimation for the double Pareto lognormal (dPlN) distribution which has been proposed as a model for heavy-tailed phenomena. We apply our approach to estimate the…
The method of Maximum (relative) Entropy (ME) is used to translate the information contained in the known form of the likelihood into a prior distribution for Bayesian inference. The argument is guided by intuition gained from the…