Related papers: Bayesian Inference for Linear Dynamic Models with …
Bayesian nonparametric mixture models are common for modeling complex data. While these models are well-suited for density estimation, recent results proved posterior inconsistency of the number of clusters when the true number of…
Bayesian inference for nonlinear diffusions, observed at discrete times, is a challenging task that has prompted the development of a number of algorithms, mainly within the computational statistics community. We propose a new direction,…
We propose a method for inference on moderately high-dimensional, nonlinear, non-Gaussian, partially observed Markov process models for which the transition density is not analytically tractable. Markov processes with intractable transition…
We develop a Bayesian inference method for diffusions observed discretely and with noise, which is free of discretisation bias. Unlike existing unbiased inference methods, our method does not rely on exact simulation techniques. Instead,…
Clustering has become a core technology in machine learning, largely due to its application in the field of unsupervised learning, clustering, classification, and density estimation. A frequentist approach exists to hand clustering based on…
Using Bayesian transfer learning, we develop a particle filter approach for tracking a nonlinear dynamical model in a dual-tracking system where intensities of measurement noise for both sensors are asymmetric. The densities for Bayesian…
We present a method that models the evolution of an unbounded number of time series clusters by switching among an unknown number of regimes with linear dynamics. We develop a Bayesian non-parametric approach using a hierarchical Dirichlet…
Many applications, such as intermittent data assimilation, lead to a recursive application of Bayesian inference within a Monte Carlo context. Popular data assimilation algorithms include sequential Monte Carlo methods and ensemble Kalman…
This paper presents an adaptive Kalman filter for a linear dynamic system perturbed by an additive disturbance. The objective is to estimate both of the state and the unknown disturbance concurrently, while learning the disturbance as a…
To improve the predictability of complex computational models in the experimentally-unknown domains, we propose a Bayesian statistical machine learning framework utilizing the Dirichlet distribution that combines results of several…
Nonparametric mixture models based on the Dirichlet process are an elegant alternative to finite models when the number of underlying components is unknown, but inference in such models can be slow. Existing attempts to parallelize…
Approximate Bayesian inference methods that scale to very large datasets are crucial in leveraging probabilistic models for real-world time series. Sparse Markovian Gaussian processes combine the use of inducing variables with efficient…
In this paper we consider the problem of dynamic clustering, where cluster memberships may change over time and clusters may split and merge over time, thus creating new clusters and destroying existing ones. We propose a Bayesian…
Predicting the behavior of a dynamical system from noisy observations of its past outputs is a classical problem encountered across engineering and science. For linear systems with Gaussian inputs, the Kalman filter -- the best linear…
This paper presents a machine learning framework for Bayesian systems identification from noisy, sparse and irregular observations of nonlinear dynamical systems. The proposed method takes advantage of recent developments in differentiable…
Nonlinear Bayesian update for a prior ensemble is proposed to extend traditional ensemble Kalman filtering to settings characterized by non-Gaussian priors and nonlinear measurement operators. In this framework, the observed component is…
This article addresses the problem of efficient Bayesian inference in dynamic systems using particle methods and makes a number of contributions. First, we develop a correlated pseudo-marginal (CPM) approach for Bayesian inference in state…
We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric classification model that combines a Gaussian process prior for the latent function with a Dirichlet process prior for the link function, extending the interpretative framework of de Finetti…
In this paper we develop a nonparametric maximum likelihood estimate of the mixing distribution of the parameters of a linear stochastic dynamical system. This includes, for example, pharmacokinetic population models with process and…
In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…