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Estimation of the operational risk capital under the Loss Distribution Approach requires evaluation of aggregate (compound) loss distributions which is one of the classic problems in risk theory. Closed-form solutions are not available for…
This study examines the interdependence between cryptocurrencies and international financial indices, such as MSCI World and MSCI Emerging Markets. We compute the value at risk, expected shortfall (ES), and range value at risk (RVaR) and…
Extreme volatility, nonlinear dependencies, and systemic fragility are characteristics of cryptocurrency markets. The assumptions of normality and centralized control in traditional financial risk models frequently cause them to miss these…
This paper investigates how to measure common market risk factors using newly proposed Panel Quantile Regression Model for Returns. By exploring the fact that volatility crosses all quantiles of the return distribution and using penalized…
We study a continuous-time portfolio optimization problem under an explicit constraint on the Deviation Conditional Value-at-Risk (DCVaR), defined as the difference between the CVaR and the expected terminal wealth. While the mean-CVaR…
Accurately defining, measuring and mitigating risk is a cornerstone of financial risk management, especially in the presence of financial contagion. Traditional correlation-based risk assessment methods often struggle under volatile market…
We provided proof here that coefficient of variation (CV) is a direct measure of risk using an equation that has been derived here for the first time. We also presented a method to generate a stock CV based on return that strongly…
Cost-of-capital valuation is a well-established approach to the valuation of liabilities and is one of the cornerstones of current regulatory frameworks for the insurance industry. Standard cost-of-capital considerations typically rely on…
Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of…
Cryptocurrency market is known for exhibiting significantly higher volatility than traditional asset classes. Efficient and adequate risk calculation is vital for managing risk exposures in such market environments where extreme price…
There are various metrics for financial risk, such as value at risk (VaR), expected shortfall, expected/unexpected loss, etc. When estimating these metrics, it was very common to assume Gaussian distribution for the asset returns, which may…
This paper studies mean-risk portfolio optimization models using the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) as a risk measure. We also employ a cardinality constraint for limiting the number of invested assets. Solving such a…
We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…
The Solvency II Directive and Solvency Assessment and Management (the South African equivalent) give a Solvency Capital Requirement which is based on a 99.5% Value-at-Risk (VaR) calculation. This calculation involves aggregating individual…
We develop a novel multivariate semi-parametric framework for joint portfolio Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasting. Unlike existing univariate semi-parametric approaches, the proposed framework explicitly models the…
The ongoing concern about systemic risk since the outburst of the global financial crisis has highlighted the need for risk measures at the level of sets of interconnected financial components, such as portfolios, institutions or members of…
We introduce a neural network approach for assessing the risk of a portfolio of assets and liabilities over a given time period. This requires a conditional valuation of the portfolio given the state of the world at a later time, a problem…
CoVaR (conditional value-at-risk) is a crucial measure for assessing financial systemic risk, which is defined as a conditional quantile of a random variable, conditioned on other random variables reaching specific quantiles. It enables the…
This paper was presented and written for two seminars: a national UK University Risk Conference and a Risk Management industry workshop. The target audience is therefore a cross section of Academics and industry professionals. The current…
This paper introduces a novel approach to financial risk assessment by incorporating topological data analysis (TDA), specifically cohomology groups, into the evaluation of equities portfolios. The study aims to go beyond traditional risk…