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The inferential models (IM) framework provides prior-free, frequency-calibrated, posterior probabilistic inference. The key is the use of random sets to predict unobservable auxiliary variables connected to the observable data and unknown…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-01-26 Ryan Martin , Chuanhai Liu

Nonprobability (convenience) samples are increasingly sought to stabilize estimations for one or more population variables of interest that are performed using a randomized survey (reference) sample by increasing the effective sample size.…

We review the most important statistical ideas of the past half century, which we categorize as: counterfactual causal inference, bootstrapping and simulation-based inference, overparameterized models and regularization, Bayesian multilevel…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-04 Andrew Gelman , Aki Vehtari

This paper presents a general and efficient framework for probabilistic inference and learning from arbitrary uncertain information. It exploits the calculation properties of finite mixture models, conjugate families and factorization. Both…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-05-19 M. C. Garrido , P. E. Lopez-de-Teruel , A. Ruiz

Traditional statistical inference considers relatively small data sets and the corresponding theoretical analysis focuses on the asymptotic behavior of a statistical estimator when the number of samples approaches infinity. However, many…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-01-03 Jon Wellner , Tong Zhang

Modern machine learning methods including deep learning have achieved great success in predictive accuracy for supervised learning tasks, but may still fall short in giving useful estimates of their predictive {\em uncertainty}. Quantifying…

Simulation-based methods for statistical inference have evolved dramatically over the past 50 years, keeping pace with technological advancements. The field is undergoing a new revolution as it embraces the representational capacity of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-11 Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Matthew Sainsbury-Dale , Raphaël Huser

In this article a flexible Bayesian non-parametric model is proposed for non-homogeneous hidden Markov models. The model is developed through the amalgamation of the ideas of hidden Markov models and predictor dependent stick-breaking…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-05-10 Abhra Sarkar , Anindya Bhadra , Bani K. Mallick

With the increasing interplay between experimental and computational approaches at multiple length scales, new research directions are emerging in materials science and computational mechanics. Such cooperative interactions find many…

Materials Science · Physics 2016-01-12 Rémi Dingreville , Richard A. Karnesky , Guillaume Puel , Jean-Hubert Schmitt

This is the English version of my inaugural lecture at Coll\`ege de France in 2021, available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bxktplKMhKU. I reflect on the difficulty of multi-disciplinary research, which often hinges of unexpected…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-08-08 Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

Boosting algorithms to simultaneously estimate and select predictor effects in statistical models have gained substantial interest during the last decade. This review article aims to highlight recent methodological developments regarding…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-19 Andreas Mayr , Harald Binder , Olaf Gefeller , Matthias Schmid

Semiparametric regression offers a flexible framework for modeling non-linear relationships between a response and covariates. A prime example are generalized additive models where splines (say) are used to approximate non-linear functional…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-05 Francis K. C. Hui , Chong You , Han Lin Shang , Samuel Müller

I review the classical theory of likelihood based inference and consider how it is being extended and developed for use in complex models and sampling schemes.

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-01 Nancy Reid

Gene-gene and gene-environment interactions are widely believed to play significant roles in explaining the variability of complex traits. While substantial research exists in this area, a comprehensive statistical framework that addresses…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-18 Durba Bhattacharya , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Multivariate meta-analysis is gaining prominence in evidence synthesis research because it enables simultaneous synthesis of multiple correlated outcome data, and random-effects models have generally been used for addressing between-studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Hisashi Noma , Kengo Nagashima , Toshi A. Furukawa

Well-calibrated probabilistic regression models are a crucial learning component in robotics applications as datasets grow rapidly and tasks become more complex. Unfortunately, classical regression models are usually either probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Hany Abdulsamad , Peter Nickl , Pascal Klink , Jan Peters

Non-probabilistic convex model utilizes a convex set to quantify the uncertainty domain of uncertain-but-bounded parameters, which is very effective for structural uncertainty analysis with limited or poor-quality experimental data. To…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2018-01-18 Ni Bingyu , Jiang Chao , Huang Zhiliang

Standard regression approaches assume that some finite number of the response distribution characteristics, such as location and scale, change as a (parametric or nonparametric) function of predictors. However, it is not always appropriate…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-14 Fernand A. Quintana , Peter Mueller , Alejandro Jara , Steven N. MacEachern

Building on a strong foundation of philosophy, theory, methods and computation over the past three decades, Bayesian approaches are now an integral part of the toolkit for most statisticians and data scientists. Whether they are dedicated…

Works, briefly surveyed here, are concerned with two basic methods: Maximum Probability and Bayesian Maximum Probability; as well as with their asymptotic instances: Relative Entropy Maximization and Maximum Non-parametric Likelihood.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-04-25 M. Grendar