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We address the problem of two-variable causal inference without intervention. This task is to infer an existing causal relation between two random variables, i.e. $X \rightarrow Y$ or $Y \rightarrow X$ , from purely observational data. As…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-07 Maximilian Kurthen , Torsten A. Enßlin

Statistical inference on the mean of a Poisson distribution is a fundamentally important problem with modern applications in, e.g., particle physics. The discreteness of the Poisson distribution makes this problem surprisingly challenging,…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-03 Ryan Martin , Duncan Ermini Leaf , Chuanhai Liu

Data on count processes arise in a variety of applications, including longitudinal, spatial and imaging studies measuring count responses. The literature on statistical models for dependent count data is dominated by models built from…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-08 Antonio Canale , David B. Dunson

In this paper, we have developed a new class of sampling schemes for estimating parameters of binomial and Poisson distributions. Without any information of the unknown parameters, our sampling schemes rigorously guarantee prescribed levels…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-10-11 Xinjia Chen

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Denis Belomestny , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

We introduce priors and algorithms to perform Bayesian inference in Gaussian models defined by acyclic directed mixed graphs. Such a class of graphs, composed of directed and bi-directed edges, is a representation of conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-02 Ricardo Silva , Zoubin Ghahramani

We propose a method for inference in generalised linear mixed models (GLMMs) and several extensions of these models. First, we extend the GLMM by allowing the distribution of the random components to be non-Gaussian, that is, assuming an…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-27 Jeanett S. Pelck , Rodrigo Labouriau

Given a statistical model, we propose a novel estimation method that yields randomised estimators for the unknown distribution of an observed random variable. We establish non-asymptotic bounds for the performance of these estimators and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-06 Yannick Baraud

The robust Poisson method is becoming increasingly popular when estimating the association of exposures with a binary outcome. Unlike the logistic regression model, the robust Poisson method yields results that can be interpreted as risk or…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-14 Denis Talbot , Miceline Mésidor , Yohann Chiu , Marc Simard , Caroline Sirois

Exponential random graph models (ERGMs) are a widely used framework for network data, enabling hypothesis testing on the structural mechanisms underlying observed networks. Bayesian ERGMs provide principled uncertainty quantification and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Alberto Caimo , Isabella Gollini

We exploit a suitable moment-based characterization of the mixture of Poisson distribution for developing Bayesian inference for the unknown size of a finite population whose units are subject to multiple occurrences during an enumeration…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Danilo Alunni Fegatelli , Luca Tardella

The statistical inverse problem of estimating the probability distribution of an infinite-dimensional unknown given its noisy indirect observation is studied in the Bayesian framework. In practice, one often considers only…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-21 Sari Lasanen

Bayesian methods estimate a measure of uncertainty by using the posterior distribution. One source of difficulty in these methods is the computation of the normalizing constant. Calculating exact posterior is generally intractable and we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-17 Farzaneh Mahdisoltani

Overdispersed count data are modelled with likelihood and non-likelihood approaches. Likelihood approaches include the Poisson mixtures with three distributions, the gamma, the lognormal, and the inverse Gaussian distributions.…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-09-08 Stanley Xu , Gary Grunwald , Richard Jones

In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-18 Thomas Brouwer , Jes Frellsen , Pietro Lió

The Grouped Horseshoe distribution arises from hierarchical structures in the recent Bayesian methodological literature aimed at selection of groups of regression coefficients. We isolate this distribution and study its properties…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-17 Virginia X. He , Matt P. Wand

It will be recalled that the classical bivariate normal distributions have normal marginals and normal conditionals. It is natural to ask whether a similar phenomenon can be encountered involving Poisson marginals and conditionals.…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-04 Barry C. Arnold , B. G. Manjunath

In this paper we consider Bayesian estimation for the parameters of inverse Gaussian distribution. Our emphasis is on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. We provide complete implementation of the Gibbs sampler algorithm. Assuming an…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-10-17 B. N. Pandey , Pulastya Bandyopadhyay

The parametric bootstrap can be used for the efficient computation of Bayes posterior distributions. Importance sampling formulas take on an easy form relating to the deviance in exponential families and are particularly simple starting…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-15 Bradley Efron

Models with dimension more than the available sample size are now commonly used in various applications. A sensible inference is possible using a lower-dimensional structure. In regression problems with a large number of predictors, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Sayantan Banerjee , Ismaël Castillo , Subhashis Ghosal