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Much traditional statistical modelling assumes that the outcome variables of interest are independent of each other when conditioned on the explanatory variables. This assumption is strongly violated in the case of infectious diseases,…
The on-line nearest-neighbour graph on a sequence of $n$ uniform random points in $(0,1)^d$ ($d \in \N$) joins each point after the first to its nearest neighbour amongst its predecessors. For the total power-weighted edge-length of this…
We obtain tight thresholds for bond percolation on one-dimensional small-world graphs, and apply such results to obtain tight thresholds for the \emph{Independent Cascade} process and the \emph{Reed-Frost} process in such graphs. These are…
Statistical inference for exponential-family models of random graphs with dependent edges is challenging. We stress the importance of additional structure and show that additional structure facilitates statistical inference. A simple…
We consider a space-time SI epidemic model with infection age-dependent infectivity and non-local infections constructed on a grid of the torus $\mathbb{T}^1 =(0, 1]^d$, where the individuals may migrate from node to another. The migration…
In this paper we introduce the perturbed version of the Barab\'asi-Albert random graph with multiple type edges and prove the existence of the (generalized) asymptotic degree distribution. Similarly to the non-perturbed case, the asymptotic…
Regularly varying stochastic processes are able to model extremal dependence between process values at locations in random fields. We investigate the empirical extremogram as an estimator of dependence in the extremes. We provide conditions…
Preferential attachment is a widely adopted paradigm for understanding the dynamics of social networks. Formal statistical inference,for instance GLM techniques, and model verification methods will require knowing test statistics are…
In the random geometric graph $G(n,r_n)$, $n$ vertices are placed randomly in Euclidean $d$-space and edges are added between any pair of vertices distant at most $r_n$ from each other. We establish strong laws of large numbers (LLNs) for a…
Pairwise models are used widely to model epidemic spread on networks. These include the modelling of susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) epidemics on regular networks and extensions to SIS dynamics and contact tracing on more exotic networks…
This paper is a survey paper on stochastic epidemic models. A simple stochastic epidemic model is defined and exact and asymptotic model properties (relying on a large community) are presented. The purpose of modelling is illustrated by…
In many applied fields it is desired to make predictions with the aim of assessing the plausibility of more severe events than those already recorded to safeguard against calamities that have not yet occurred. This problem can be analysed…
Within epidemiological modeling, the majority of analyses assume a single epidemic process for generating ground-truth data. However, this assumed data generation process can be unrealistic, since data sources for epidemics are often…
We consider an SIR-type (Susceptible $\to$ Infected $\to$ Recovered) stochastic epidemic process with multiple modes of transmission on a contact network. The network is given by a random graph following a multilayer configuration model…
Starting from a stochastic individual-based description of an SIS epidemic spreading on a random network, we study the dynamics when the size $n$ of the network tends to infinity. We recover in the limit an infinite-dimensional…
We consider the Erd\"{o}s--R\'{e}nyi random graph $G_{n,p}$ and we analyze the simple irreversible epidemic process on the graph, known in the literature as bootstrap percolation. We give a quantitative version of some results by Janson et…
We establish limit theorems that describe the asymptotic local and global geometric behaviour of random enriched trees considered up to symmetry. We apply these general results to random unlabelled weighted rooted graphs and uniform random…
We study a model for the spread of an infectious disease which incorporates spatial and temporal effects. The model is a delayed multi-type branching process in which types represent geographic regions while infected individuals reproduce…
Consider an epidemic model with a constant flux of susceptibles, in a situation where the corresponding deterministic epidemic model has a unique stable endemic equilibrium. For the associated stochastic model, whose law of large numbers…
In this paper, we are concerned with the stochastic susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on the complete graph with $n$ vertices. This model has two parameters, which are the infection rate and the recovery rate. By…