Related papers: Multitype randomized Reed--Frost epidemics and epi…
In this paper, a branching process approximation for the spread of a Reed-Frost epidemic on a network with tunable clustering is derived. The approximation gives rise to expressions for the epidemic threshold and the probability of a large…
We couple a multi-type stochastic epidemic process with a directed random graph, where edges have random lengths. This random graph representation is used to characterise the fractions of individuals infected by the different types of…
In this work, we study the finite-population behaviour of the Reed-Frost epidemic model. Our analysis relies on the exact expression for the final epidemic size, replaced by Monte Carlo simulations in cases where the exact formula becomes…
We focus on an epidemiological model (the archetypical SIR system) defined on graphs and study the asymptotic behavior of the solutions as the number of vertices in the graph diverges. By relying on the theory of so called graphons we…
In the Reed-Frost model, an example of an SIR epidemic model, one can examine a statistic that counts the number of concurrently infected individuals. This statistic can be reformulated as a statistic on the \ER random graph $G(n,p)$.…
For a given homogeneous Poisson point process in $\mathbb{R}^d$ two points are connected by an edge if their distance is bounded by a prescribed distance parameter. The behaviour of the resulting random graph, the Gilbert graph or random…
Working in the multi-type Galton-Watson branching-process framework we analyse the spread of a pandemic via a general multi-type random contact graph. Our model consists of several communities, and takes, as input, parameters that outline…
In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…
For a given, arbitrary graph, what is the epidemic threshold? That is, under what conditions will a virus result in an epidemic? We provide the super-model theorem, which generalizes older results in two important, orthogonal dimensions.…
A Reed-Frost epidemic with inhomogeneous infection probabilities on a graph with prescribed degree distribution is studied. Each edge $(u,v)$ in the graph is equipped with two weights $W_{(u,v)}$ and $W_{(v,u)}$ that represent the…
A geometric representation for multivariate extremes, based on the shapes of scaled sample clouds in light-tailed margins and their so-called limit sets, has recently been shown to connect several existing extremal dependence concepts.…
This paper introduces a microscopic approach to model epidemics, which can explicitly consider the consequences of individual's decisions on the spread of the disease. We first formulate a microscopic multi-agent epidemic model where every…
We consider the edge-triangle model, a two-parameter family of exponential random graphs in which dependence between edges is introduced through triangles. In the so-called replica symmetric regime, the limiting free energy exists together…
We introduce a Reed-Frost epidemic model with recursive contact tracing and asymptomatic transmission. This generalizes the branching-process model introduced by the authors in a previous work [arxiv:2004.07237] to finite populations and…
This work is concerned with epidemiological models defined on networks, which highlight the prominent role of the social contact network of a given population in the spread of infectious diseases. In particular, we address the modelling and…
Viruses constantly undergo mutations with genomic changes. The propagation of variants of viruses is an interesting problem. We perform numerical simulations of the microscopic epidemic model based on network theory for the spread of…
The epidemic process on a graph is considered for which infectious contacts occur at rate which depends on whether a susceptible is infected for the first time or not. We show that the Vasershtein coupling extends if and only if secondary…
The current work deals with an epidemic model on the complete graph K_n on n vertices in a non-homogeneous setting, where the vertices may have distinct types. Different types differ in the probability of getting infected, and/or in the…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
Statistical modeling of multivariate and spatial extreme events has attracted broad attention in various areas of science. Max-stable distributions and processes are the natural class of models for this purpose, and many parametric families…