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We consider the problem of state estimation in dynamical systems and propose a different mechanism for handling unmodeled system uncertainties. Instead of injecting random process noise, we assign different weights to measurements so that…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-09-08 Yaron Shulami , Daniel Sigalov

Estimating mutual information (MI) is a fundamental yet challenging task in data science and machine learning. This work proposes a new estimator for mutual information. Our main discovery is that a preliminary estimate of the data…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-20 Yanzhi Chen , Zijing Ou , Adrian Weller , Yingzhen Li

The conditional mutual information quantifies the conditional dependence of two random variables. It has numerous applications; it forms, for example, part of the definition of transfer entropy, a common measure of the causal relationship…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-04-15 Jake Witter , Conor Houghton

In some causal inference scenarios, the treatment variable is measured inaccurately, for instance in epidemiology or econometrics. Failure to correct for the effect of this measurement error can lead to biased causal effect estimates.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-09-13 Antti Pöllänen , Pekka Marttinen

The minimum mean-square error of the estimation of a signal where observed from the additive white Gaussian noise (WGN) channel's output, is analyzed. It is assumed that the channel input's signal is composed of a (normalized) sum of N…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2007-07-13 Jacob Binia

What is the difference of a prediction that is made with a causal model and a non-causal model? Suppose we intervene on the predictor variables or change the whole environment. The predictions from a causal model will in general work as…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-27 Jonas Peters , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

We study the performance of estimators of a sparse nonrandom vector based on an observation which is linearly transformed and corrupted by additive white Gaussian noise. Using the reproducing kernel Hilbert space framework, we derive a new…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-09-20 Sebastian Schmutzhard , Alexander Jung , Franz Hlawatsch , Zvika Ben-Haim , Yonina C. Eldar

This paper proposes a debiased estimator for causal effects in high-dimensional generalized linear models with binary outcomes and general link functions. The estimator augments a regularized regression plug-in with weights computed from a…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-21 Jing Kong

This paper is the first part of a series of papers on filtering for partially observed jump diffusions satisfying a stochastic differential equation driven by Wiener processes and Poisson martingale measures. The coefficients of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-05-18 Fabian Germ , István Gyöngy

This work extends the Elsner & Wandelt (2013) iterative method for efficient, preconditioner-free Wiener filtering to cases in which the noise covariance matrix is dense, but can be decomposed into a sum whose parts are sparse in convenient…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2018-02-21 Kevin M. Huffenberger

The abundance of data produced daily from large variety of sources has boosted the need of novel approaches on causal inference analysis from observational data. Observational data often contain noisy or missing entries. Moreover, causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-03-14 Fani Tsapeli , Peter Tino , Mirco Musolesi

Estimating causal effects of joint interventions on multiple variables is crucial in many domains, but obtaining data from such simultaneous interventions can be challenging. Our study explores how to learn joint interventional effects…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-06 Armin Kekić , Sergio Hernan Garrido Mejia , Bernhard Schölkopf

The mutual information (MI) of Poisson-type channels has been linked to a filtering problem since the 70s, but its evaluation for specific continuous-time, discrete-state systems remains a demanding task. As an advantage, Markov renewal…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Maximilian Gehri , Nicolai Engelmann , Heinz Koeppl

Recent advances in statistical learning theory have revealed profound connections between mutual information (MI) bounds, PAC-Bayesian theory, and Bayesian nonparametrics. This work introduces a novel mutual information bound for…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-18 El Mahdi Khribch , Pierre Alquier

The possibility of non-causal signal propagation is examined for various theories of dense matter. This investigation requires a discussion of definitions of causality, together with interpretations of spacetime position. Specific examples…

High Energy Physics - Theory · Physics 2008-11-26 B. D. Keister , W. N. Polyzou

In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-24 Jarrad Courts , Adrian Wills , Thomas B. Schön

We propose a probabilistic extension of Wiener-Laguerre models for causal operator learning. Classical Wiener-Laguerre models parameterize stable linear dynamics using orthonormal Laguerre bases and apply a static nonlinear map to the…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-02-16 Rahul Manavalan , Filip Tronarp

Information theory provides a fundamental framework for the quantification of information flows through channels, formally Markov kernels. However, quantities such as mutual information and conditional mutual information do not necessarily…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2020-07-08 Nihat Ay

Deep nonlinear models pose a challenge for fitting parameters due to lack of knowledge of the hidden layer and the potentially non-affine relation of the initial and observed layers. In the present work we investigate the use of information…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-12-20 Jacob S. Hunter , Nathan O. Hodas

Gravitational-wave parameter estimation for compact binary signals typically relies on sequential estimation of the properties of the detector Gaussian noise and of the binary parameters. This procedure assumes that the noise variance,…

General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology · Physics 2022-11-14 Cailin Plunkett , Sophie Hourihane , Katerina Chatziioannou