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The Stochastic Approximation EM (SAEM) algorithm, a variant stochastic approximation of EM, is a versatile tool for inference in incomplete data models. In this paper, we review the fundamental EM algorithm and then focus especially on the…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-30 Vahid Tadayon

We describe and analyze some Monte Carlo methods for manifolds in Euclidean space defined by equality and inequality constraints. First, we give an MCMC sampler for probability distributions defined by un-normalized densities on such…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-09-21 Emilio Zappa , Miranda Holmes-Cerfon , Jonathan Goodman

This is a short review of Monte Carlo methods for approximating filter distributions in state space models. The basic algorithm and different strategies to reduce imbalance of the weights are discussed. Finally, methods for more difficult…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-01 Hans R. Künsch

We propose a novel sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method for sampling from unnormalized target distributions based on a reverse denoising diffusion process. While recent diffusion-based samplers simulate the reverse diffusion using…

Computation · Statistics 2025-11-06 Luhuan Wu , Yi Han , Christian A. Naesseth , John P. Cunningham

Estimating failure probabilities of engineering systems is an important problem in many engineering fields. In this work we consider such problems where the failure probability is extremely small (e.g $\leq10^{-10}$). In this case, standard…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2017-05-24 Xinjuan Chen , Jinglai Li

In this article we consider importance sampling (IS) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods in the context of 1-dimensional random walks with absorbing barriers. In particular, we develop a very precise variance analysis for several IS…

Computation · Statistics 2016-11-11 Pierre Del Moral , Ajay Jasra

The aim of the history matching method is to locate non-implausible regions of the parameter space of complex deterministic or stochastic models by matching model outputs with data. It does this via a series of waves where at each wave an…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-11 Christopher C Drovandi , David J Nott , Daniel E Pagendam

Monte Carlo (MC) techniques are often used to estimate integrals of a multivariate function using randomly generated samples of the function. In light of the increasing interest in uncertainty quantification and robust design applications…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2011-08-25 Brendan Tracey , David Wolpert , Juan J. Alonso

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods are standard tools for inferring parameters of complex models when the likelihood function is analytically intractable. A popular approach to improving the poor acceptance rate of the basic…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-01-27 Henri Pesonen , Jukka Corander

We investigate the properties of a sequential Monte Carlo method where the particle weight that appears in the algorithm is estimated by a positive, unbiased estimator. We present broadly-applicable convergence results, including a central…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-26 Paul B. Rohrbach , Robert L. Jack

A common way to simulate the transport and spread of pollutants in the atmosphere is via stochastic Lagrangian dispersion models. Mathematically, these models describe turbulent transport processes with stochastic differential equations…

Parameter estimation for discretely observed Markov processes is a challenging problem. However, simulation of Markov processes is straightforward using the Gillespie algorithm. We exploit this ease of simulation to develop an effective…

Computation · Statistics 2014-04-17 Peter Neal

A number of optimal decision problems with uncertainty can be formulated into a stochastic optimal control framework. The Least-Squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) algorithm is a popular numerical method to approach solutions of such stochastic…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-23 Zhiyi Shen , Chengguo Weng

Approximate inference in probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) can be grouped into deterministic methods and Monte-Carlo-based methods. The former can often provide accurate and rapid inferences, but are typically associated with biases…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-09 Fredrik Lindsten , Jouni Helske , Matti Vihola

Monte Carlo simulations are an essential tool in particle physics data analysis. Events are typically generated alongside weights that redistribute the cross section of the simulated process across the phase space. These weights can be…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-05-13 Benjamin Nachman , Dennis Noll

This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-08 Gianluca Cubadda , Francesco Giancaterini , Stefano Grassi

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods are widely used to draw samples from intractable target distributions. Particle degeneracy can hinder the use of SMC when the target distribution is highly constrained or multimodal. As a motivating…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-26 Zhaoran Hou , Samuel W. K. Wong

In this paper, we examine the Sample Average Approximation (SAA) procedure within a framework where the Monte Carlo estimator of the expectation is biased. We also introduce Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) in the SAA setup to enhance the…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-07-29 Devang Sinha , Siddhartha P. Chakrabarty

In this article we focus on dynamic network data which describe interactions among a fixed population through time. We model this data using the latent space framework, in which the probability of a connection forming is expressed as a…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-21 Kathryn Turnbull , Christopher Nemeth , Matthew Nunes , Tyler McCormick

This paper focuses on signal processing tasks in which the signal is transformed from the signal space to a higher dimensional coefficient space (also called phase space) using a continuous frame, processed in the coefficient space, and…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-09-14 Ron Levie , Haim Avron