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In this work, we investigate the estimation of a parameter $f$ in PDEs using Bayesian procedures, and focus on posterior distributions constructed using Gaussian process priors, and its variational approximation. We establish contraction…

The problem of assigning probability distributions which objectively reflect the prior information available about experiments is one of the major stumbling blocks in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this paper the method of…

Classic Bayesian methods with complex models are frequently infeasible due to an intractable likelihood. Simulation-based inference methods, such as Approximate Bayesian Computing (ABC), calculate posteriors without accessing a likelihood…

Posterior predictive p-values are a common approach to Bayesian model-checking. This article analyses their frequency behaviour, that is, their distribution when the parameters and the data are drawn from the prior and the model…

Bayesian doubly robust (DR) causal inference faces a fundamental dilemma: joint modeling of outcome and propensity score suffers from the feedback problem where outcome information contaminates propensity score estimation, while two-step…

In the setting of nonparametric multivariate regression with unknown error variance, we study asymptotic properties of a Bayesian method for estimating a regression function f and its mixed partial derivatives. We use a random series of…

We develop a semiparametric Bayesian approach for estimating the mean response in a missing data model with binary outcomes and a nonparametrically modelled propensity score. Equivalently we estimate the causal effect of a treatment,…

This paper deals with Bayesian inference of a mixture of Gaussian distributions. A novel formulation of the mixture model is introduced, which includes the prior constraint that each Gaussian component is always assigned a minimal number of…

The purpose of this paper is to provide guidelines for empirical researchers who use a class of bivariate threshold crossing models with dummy endogenous variables. A common practice employed by the researchers is the specification of the…

This paper studies regret minimization in a multi-armed bandit. It is well known that side information, such as the prior distribution of arm means in Thompson sampling, can improve the statistical efficiency of the bandit algorithm. While…

In certain applications involving the solution of a Bayesian inverse problem, it may not be possible or desirable to evaluate the full posterior, e.g. due to the high computational cost of doing so. This problem motivates the use of…

We study posterior contraction rates for a class of deep Gaussian process priors applied to the nonparametric regression problem under a general composition assumption on the regression function. It is shown that the contraction rates can…

We consider nonparametric Bayesian estimation and prediction for nonhomogeneous Poisson process models with unknown intensity functions. We propose a class of improper priors for intensity functions. Nonparametric Bayesian inference with…

The proposed approach extends the confidence posterior distribution to the semi-parametric empirical Bayes setting. Whereas the Bayesian posterior is defined in terms of a prior distribution conditional on the observed data, the confidence…

We consider nonparametric Bayesian inference in a reflected diffusion model $dX_t = b (X_t)dt + \sigma(X_t) dW_t,$ with discretely sampled observations $X_0, X_\Delta, \dots, X_{n\Delta}$. We analyse the nonlinear inverse problem…

We consider the setting of iterative learning control, or model-based policy learning in the presence of uncertain, time-varying dynamics. In this setting, we propose a new performance metric, planning regret, which replaces the standard…

We study a nonparametric Bayesian approach to linear inverse problems under discrete observations. We use the discrete Fourier transform to convert our model into a truncated Gaussian sequence model, that is closely related to the classical…

The standard approach to Bayesian inference is based on the assumption that the distribution of the data belongs to the chosen model class. However, even a small violation of this assumption can have a large impact on the outcome of a…

This paper is concerned with Bayesian inferential methods for data from controlled branching processes that account for model robustness through the use of disparities. Under regularity conditions, we establish that estimators built on…

We study full Bayesian procedures for high-dimensional linear regression under sparsity constraints. The prior is a mixture of point masses at zero and continuous distributions. Under compatibility conditions on the design matrix, the…