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This paper is devoted to a direct martingale approach for P{\'o}lya urn models asymptotic behaviour. A P{\'o}lya process is said to be small when the ratio of its remplacement matrix eigenvalues is less than or equal to 1/2, otherwise it is…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-11 Lucile Laulin

It is known that in an irreducible small P\'olya urn process, the composition of the urn after suitable normalization converges in distribution to a normal distribution. We show that if the urn also is balanced, this normal convergence…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-06-23 Svante Janson , Nicolas Pouyanne

The P\'olya urn scheme is a discrete-time process concerning the addition and removal of colored balls. There is a known embedding of it in continuous-time, called the P\'olya process. We deal with a generalization of this stochastic model,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-07-29 Daniel Krenn , Hosam Mahmoud , Mark Daniel Ward

We propose an approach to analyze the asymptotic behavior of P\'olya urns based on the contraction method. For this, a new combinatorial discrete time embedding of the evolution of the urn into random rooted trees is developed. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-02-20 Margarete Knape , Ralph Neininger

P\'olya urns are urns where at each unit of time a ball is drawn and replaced with some other balls according to its colour. We introduce a more general model: the replacement rule depends on the colour of the drawn ball and the value of…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-04 Cyril Banderier , Philippe Marchal , Michael Wallner

P{\'o}lya urns are urns where at each unit of time a ball is drawn and is replaced with some other balls according to its colour. We introduce a more general model: The replacement rule depends on the colour of the drawn ball and the value…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2018-06-22 Cyril Banderier , Philippe Marchal , Michael Wallner

Generalized P\'olya urns with non-linear feedback are an established probabilistic model to describe the dynamics of growth processes with reinforcement, a generic example being competition of agents in evolving markets. It is well known…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-07 Thomas Gottfried , Stefan Grosskinsky

We propose an elementary but effective approach to studying a general class of Poissonized tenable and balanced urns on two colors. We characterize the asymptotic behavior of the process via a partial differential equation that governs the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-05 Chen Chen , Panpan Zhang

P\'{o}lya urn is a stochastic process in which balls are randomly drawn from an urn of red and blue balls, and balls of the same color as the drawn balls are added. The probability of a ball of a certain color being drawn is equal to the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-11-10 Shintaro Mori , Masato Hisakado , Kazuaki Nakayama

A P\'olya urn process is a Markov chain that models the evolution of an urn containing some coloured balls, the set of possible colours being $\{1,\ldots,d\}$ for $d\in \mathbb{N}$. At each time step, a random ball is chosen uniformly in…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-03-13 Cécile Mailler , Jean-François Marckert

This paper is devoted to filtering, smoothing, and prediction of polynomial processes that are partially observed. These problems are known to allow for an explicit solution in the simpler case of linear Gaussian state space models. The key…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-10 Jan Kallsen , Ivo Richert

We derive a moment formula for generalized fractional polynomial processes, i.e., for polynomial-preserving Markov processes time-changed by an inverse L\'evy-subordinator. If the time change is inverse $\alpha$-stable, the time-derivative…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-27 Johannes Assefa , Martin Keller-Ressel

The first aim is to construct generalizations of Polya type point process by applying a branching mechanism to these point processes. Conditions are given under which these point processes satisfy an integration by parts formula.…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-06-07 Benjamin Nehring , Mathias Rafler

This article describes a purely analytic approach to urn models of the generalized or extended P\'olya-Eggenberger type, in the case of two types of balls and constant ``balance,'' that is, constant row sum. The treatment starts from a…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Philippe Flajolet , Joaquim Gabarro , Helmut Pekari

We study a class of unbalanced constant-differentials P\'olya processes on white and blue balls. We show that the number of white balls, the number of blue balls, and the total number of balls, when appropriately scaled, all converge in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-28 Hosam M. Mahmoud , Panpan Zhang

We give bounds for (central) moments for balanced P\'olya urns under very general conditions. In some cases, these bounds imply that moment convergence holds in earlier known results on asymptotic distribution. The results overlap with…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-21 Svante Janson

The analysis of observable phenomena (for instance, in biology or physics) allows the detection of dynamical behaviors and, conversely, starting from a desired behavior allows the design of objects exhibiting that behavior in engineering.…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Antonio E. Porreca , Marius Rolland

Polya Enumeration Theorem is one of the most useful tools dealing with the enumeration of patterns that are symmetric in some ways. What follows is a procedure for obtaining the results of Polya Theorem directly, bypassing the usual…

History and Overview · Mathematics 2010-01-05 Kung-Wei Yang

Replacing the usual notion of quotient sets by the notion of orbiquotient sets we obtain a generalization of P\'olya theory. The key ingredient of our extended theory is the definition of the orbicycle index polynomial which we compute in…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2011-12-20 Hector Blandin , Rafael Diaz

In this work, recent results on the moments of balanced P\'olya urns are generalized to unbalanced urns, with the condition that the expected change in total activity at each step is constant. We also provide applications of our results to…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-03-19 Colin Desmarais
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