Related papers: Adaptive confidence balls
An important problem in statistics is the construction of confidence regions for unknown parameters. In most cases, asymptotic distribution theory is used to construct confidence regions, so any coverage probability claims only hold…
Motivated by the fact that the medial axis transform is able to encode nearly the complete shape, we propose to use as few medial balls as possible to approximate the original enclosed volume by the boundary surface. We progressively select…
Given an IID sample from a positive distribution, we provide a method for constructing rigorous finite sample lower confidence bounds for the expectation of the distribution. The method is based on constructing rigorous confidence regions…
We study adaptive mesh selection for the solution of systems of initial value problems. The goal is a rigorous theoretical analysis of potential advantages of adaption. For an optimal method in the sense of the speed of convergence, we…
Adaptive Bayesian quadrature (ABQ) is a powerful approach to numerical integration that empirically compares favorably with Monte Carlo integration on problems of medium dimensionality (where non-adaptive quadrature is not competitive). Its…
Unbiased confidence estimates of neural networks are crucial especially for safety-critical applications. Many methods have been developed to calibrate biased confidence estimates. Though there is a variety of methods for classification,…
Computation of confidence sets is central to data science and machine learning, serving as the workhorse of A/B testing and underpinning the operation and analysis of reinforcement learning algorithms. This paper studies the geometry of the…
A detailed set of experiments are described that capture over a 1000 different instances of the bounce of a golf ball. Video analysis is used to capture velocity and spin immediately prior to and subsequent to each bounce for a wide variety…
We consider a linear model where the coefficients - intercept and slopes - are random with a law in a nonparametric class and independent from the regressors. Identification often requires the regressors to have a support which is the whole…
Certifying the fidelity of a prepared state to a target stabilizer state is a fundamental task in quantum information processing. Ref. [Phys. Rev. A 99, 042337 (2019)] gave the optimal worst-case lower bound from one fixed stabilizer…
Minimax lower bounds are pessimistic in nature: for any given estimator, minimax lower bounds yield the existence of a worst-case target vector $\beta^*_{worst}$ for which the prediction error of the given estimator is bounded from below.…
For any class of one-sided $1-\alpha$ confidence intervals with a certain monotonicity ordering on the random confidence limit, the smallest interval, in the sense of the set inclusion for the difference of two proportions of two…
Randomized smoothing is the current state-of-the-art method for producing provably robust classifiers. While randomized smoothing typically yields robust $\ell_2$-ball certificates, recent research has generalized provable robustness to…
Objectives: Estimation of areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and their differences is a key task in diagnostic studies. We aimed to derive, evaluate, and implement simple sample size formulas for such studies with a…
Standard confidence intervals employed in applied statistical analysis are usually based on asymptotic approximations. Such approximations can be considerably inaccurate in small and moderate sized samples. We derive accurate confidence…
We address functional uncertainty quantification for ill-posed inverse problems where it is possible to evaluate a possibly rank-deficient forward model, the observation noise distribution is known, and there are known parameter…
We consider the problem of online linear regression on individual sequences. The goal in this paper is for the forecaster to output sequential predictions which are, after $T$ time rounds, almost as good as the ones output by the best…
We describe the set of parameters $(p_1,p_2,q_1,q_2)$ such that the balls $B_{q_1,q_2}^{s,b}$ are rigid in $\ell_{q_1,q_2}^{s,b}$ metric i.e. they are poorly approximated by linear subspaces of dimension $\le (1-\varepsilon)sb$, for large…
We derive a new residual-type a posteriori estimator for a singularly perturbed reaction-diffusion problem with obstacle constraints. It generalizes robust residual estimators for unconstrained singularly perturbed equations. Upper and…
We develop large sample theory including nonparametric confidence regions for $r$-dimensional ridges of probability density functions on $\mathbb{R}^d$, where $1\leq r<d$. We view ridges as the intersections of level sets of some special…