Related papers: Epidemic branching processes with and without vacc…
We investigate stochastic extinction in an epidemic model and the impact of random vaccinations in large populations formulated in terms of an optimal escape path. We find that different random vaccination strategies can have widely…
We analyze the susceptible-infected-susceptible model for epidemic spreading in which a fraction of the individuals become immune by vaccination. This process is understood as a dilution by vaccination, which decreases the fraction of the…
Motivated by the increasing number of COVID-19 cases that have been observed in many countries after the vaccination and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we propose a mathematical model on time-varying networks for the spread…
We propose a framework for the description of the effects of vaccinations on the spreading of an epidemic disease. Different vaccines can be dosed, each providing different immunization times and immunization levels. Differences due to…
A simple, but ``classical``, stochastic model for epidemic spread in a finite, but large, population is studied. The progress of the epidemic can be divided into three different phases that requires different tools to analyse. Initially the…
We consider optimal vaccination protocol where the vaccine is in short supply. In this case, disease extinction results from a large and rare fluctuation. We show that the probability of such fluctuation can be exponentially increased by…
Given limited supply of approved vaccines and constrained medical resources, design of a vaccination strategy to control a pandemic is an economic problem. We use time-series and panel methods with real-world country-level data to estimate…
The simple Galton--Watson process describes populations where individuals live one season and are then replaced by a random number of children. It can also be viewed as a way of generating random trees, each vertex being an individual of…
The contact process with an asymptomatic state, introduced in [Belhadji, Lanchier and Mercer, Stochastic Process. Appl., 176:104417, 2024], is a natural variant of the basic contact process that distinguishes between asymptomatic (state 1)…
We consider a discrete-time host-parasite model for a population of cells which are colonized by proliferating parasites. The cell population grows like an ordinary Galton-Watson process, but in reflection of real biological settings the…
We study the impact of vaccination on the risk of epidemics spreading through structured networks using the cavity method of statistical physics. We relax the assumption that vaccination prevents all transmission of a disease used in…
We investigate stochastic extinction in an epidemic model and the impact of random vaccinations in large populations. We show that, in the absence of vaccinations, the effective entropic barrier for extinction displays scaling with the…
Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on…
This is an epidemiological SIRV model based study that is designed to analyze the impact of vaccination in containing infection spread, in a 4-tiered population compartment comprised of susceptible, infected, recovered and vaccinated…
Mass vaccination produces a reduction in virus circulation, but also evolutive pressure towards the appearance of virus-resistant strains. We discuss the balance between these two effects, in particular when the mass vaccination takes place…
This paper investigates the effects of vaccination on the dynamics of infectious disease, which is spreading in a population concurrently with awareness. The model considers contributions to the overall awareness from a global information…
As infectious disease outbreaks emerge, public health agencies often enact vaccination and social distancing measures to slow transmission. Their success depends on not only strategies and resources, but also public adherence. Individual…
Working in the multi-type Galton-Watson branching-process framework we analyse the spread of a pandemic via a general multi-type random contact graph. Our model consists of several communities, and takes, as input, parameters that outline…
Scale-free configuration models are intimately connected to power law Galton-Watson trees. It is known that contact process epidemics can propagate on these trees and therefore these networks with arbitrarily small infection rate, and this…
Despite high vaccine coverage, pertussis has re-emerged as a public health concern in many countries. One hypothesis posed for re-emergence is the waning of immunity. In some disease systems, the process of waning immunity can be…