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Using a Levy process we generalize formulas in Bo et al.(2010) for the Esscher transform parameters for the log-normal distribution which ensure the martingale condition holds for the discounted foreign exchange rate. Using these values of…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2014-02-11 Anatoliy Swishchuk , Maksym Tertychnyi , Robert Elliott

This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-10 Leonardo N. Ferreira , Haroon Mumtaz , Ana Skoblar

This paper provides an insight to the time-varying dynamics of the shape of the distribution of financial return series by proposing an exponential weighted moving average model that jointly estimates volatility, skewness and kurtosis over…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-06-08 A. Gabrielsen , P. Zagaglia , A. Kirchner , Z. Liu

Mounting empirical evidence suggests that the observed extreme prices within a trading period can provide valuable information about the volatility of the process within that period. In this paper we define a class of stochastic volatility…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-01-12 Abel Rodriguez , Henryk Gzyl , German Molina , Enrique ter Horst

It is known that the implied volatility skew of FX options demonstrates a stochastic behavior which is called stochastic skew. In this paper we create stochastic skew by assuming the spot/instantaneous variance correlation to be stochastic.…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-01-20 Andrey Itkin

The present work studies and analyzes general defaultable OTC contract in presence of a contingent CSA, which is a theoretical counterparty risk mitigation mechanism of switching type that allows the counterparty of a general OTC contract…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-12-04 Giovanni Mottola

The correlated stochastic volatility models constitute a natural extension of the Black and Scholes-Merton framework: here the volatility is not a constant, but a stochastic process correlated with the price log-return one. At present,…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 E. Cisana , L. Fermi , G. Montagna , O. Nicrosini

In this paper we introduce a simple continuous-time asset pricing framework, based on general multi-dimensional diffusion processes, that combines semi-analytic pricing with a nonlinear specification for the market price of risk. Our…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2009-11-06 Aleksandar Mijatovic , Paul Schneider

Masked autoencoders (MAEs) are increasingly applied to electronic health records (EHR) for learning general-purpose representations that support diverse clinical tasks. However, existing approaches typically rely on uniform random masking,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-08 Rajna Fani , Rafi Al Attrach , David Restrepo , Yugang Jia , Leo Anthony Celi , Peter Schüffler

In an efficient stock market, the returns and their time-dependent volatility are often jointly modeled by stochastic volatility models (SVMs). Over the last few decades several SVMs have been proposed to adequately capture the defining…

Applications · Statistics 2017-03-21 Sujay Mukhoti , Pritam Ranjan

Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are widely used in the financial sector to measure the market risk and manage the extreme market movement. The recent link between the quantile score function and the Asymmetric Laplace…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-14 Zhengkun Li , Minh-Ngoc Tran , Chao Wang , Richard Gerlach , Junbin Gao

In this paper new analytical and numerical approaches to valuating path-dependent options of European type have been developed. The model of stochastic volatility as a basic model has been chosen. For European options we could improve the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2010-09-24 Yu. A. Kuperin , P. A. Poloskov

We extend the approach of Carr, Itkin and Muravey, 2021 for getting semi-analytical prices of barrier options for the time-dependent Heston model with time-dependent barriers by applying it to the so-called $\lambda$-SABR stochastic…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2021-09-07 Andrey Itkin , Dmitry Muravey

We propose a pairs trading model that incorporates a time-varying volatility of the Constant Elasticity of Variance type. Our approach is based on stochastic control techniques; given a fixed time horizon and a portfolio of two…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-11-05 T. N. Li , A. Tourin

L\'evy processes are widely used in financial mathematics to model return data. Price processes are then defined as a corresponding geometric L\'evy process, implying the fact that returns are independent. In this paper we propose an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-02-22 L. Gerencsér , M. Mánfay

Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…

Applications · Statistics 2016-11-01 Eric Jacquier , Nicholas Polson , Vadim Sokolov

We propose a generic calibration framework to both vanilla and no-touch options for a large class of continuous semi-martingale models. The method builds upon the forward partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) derived in Hambly et al.…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-19 Alan Bain , Matthieu Mariapragassam , Christoph Reisinger

We solve the first-passage problem for the Heston random diffusion model. We obtain exact analytical expressions for the survival and hitting probabilities to a given level of return. We study several asymptotic behaviors and obtain…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2010-03-25 Jaume Masoliver , Josep Perello

Volatility measures the amplitude of price fluctuations. Despite it is one of the most important quantities in finance, volatility is not directly observable. Here we apply a maximum likelihood method which assumes that price and volatility…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2012-09-03 Jordi Camprodon , Josep Perelló

This paper concerns a local volatility model in which volatility takes two possible values, and the specific value depends on whether the underlying price is above or below a given threshold value. The model is known, and a number of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-05-17 Alexander Gairat , Vadim Shcherbakov